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Thursday, 08/27/2015 4:28:14 AM

Thursday, August 27, 2015 4:28:14 AM

Post# of 8287
Routing and switching revenue - Cisco , Juniper and Huawei. Est potential settlements
The 3 multinational have a global market share of ca 70% of a total $14.5B market for routing and switching in 2013. This is their portion of revenue currently SPEX has claimed it was earned infrindging their patents. Cisco has ca half of that 70% market share, Huawei and Juniper divide the other half. So we are talking about $10B p.a. for the 3 , for many years of infringement. Probably $100B revenue cumulatively. Under normal circumstances , ie licence agreement, you would expect to get at least $5B out of that $100B revenue, plus interests. But ok we are going to settle, first with Huawei, the others will follow, so we will only be able to get some of it. My realistic guesstimate is that we should be able to get 1/5 (settlement discount , maybe not all the revenue applies etc) of it for the 3 together ie ca $1B, which could lift PPS to $80. Huawei settlement alone could be proportionally $200M under the above mentioned assumptions. If we win on all the fronts as it seems now likely after the MK hearing with Huawei, then we should aim big IMO.