Tornado Alley (PROG)

[fuagf]

Reminders for Jeb of withdrawals in his brother's time, of not following up on so called military
successes, of which, of course, there have been only short term ones in Iraq, in any case .. excerpt ..

The essay by the two Kagans is worth reading in its entirety because they analyze the military’s past mistakes and show how the lessons learned then are being
applied to the surge now. They look at the botched and successful campaigns in Fallujah, Najaf, Sadr City, Tal Afar, the Upper Euphrates, Ramadi, and Baghdad.

Here is what they wrote about Ramadi:

--
Early in 2006, the U.S. military command withdrew the additional forces introduced to support the elections, and thereafter resisted all suggestions of a more active posture or a larger American presence. In 2006 the focus was on training the Iraqi military and transitioning responsibility for security to the Iraqis. It was hoped that the results of the 2005 elections would lead to the political progress that was seen as the key to reducing violence, and Generals John Abizaid and George Casey believed that an active American presence was an irritant that caused more trouble than it cured. They also feared that American forces conducting counterinsurgency operations would allow the Iraqi forces to lie back and become dependent on the Coalition. The overall U.S. posture in the first half of 2006, therefore, remained largely defensive and reactive, and the military command aimed to reduce the number of American forces in Iraq as rapidly as possible.
--

In the meantime, the situation was deteriorating dramatically. Al Qaeda terrorists destroyed the Golden Dome of the al-Askariya Mosque in Samarra (a Shiite shrine in the predominantly Sunni Arab province of Salahuddin), and a wave of sectarian violence swept Iraq. Within days more than 30 mosques had been bombed, and death squads began executing civilians across the country in large numbers in tit-for-tat sectarian murders.

The failure to follow up either on the successes in Falluja in 2004 or on the beginnings of clearing operations in the Upper Euphrates in 2005 allowed Anbar Province to sink deeper into the control of Sunni insurgents and al Qaeda terrorists. As late as August 2006, the Marine intelligence officer for the province declared that it was irretrievably lost to the enemy.

Nevertheless, the Marines and Army units in Anbar began a series of quiet efforts to regain control that ultimately led to spectacular and unexpected success. They began to engage local leaders in talks, particularly after al Qaeda committed a series of assassinations and other atrocities against tribal leaders and local civilians as part of an effort to enforce their extreme and distorted vision of Islamic law. U.S. forces under the command of Colonel Sean MacFarland also began a quiet effort to apply the clearing principles honed through operations in Falluja, Sadr City, and Tal Afar to Ramadi. There were never enough forces to undertake such operations rapidly or decisively, and success never appeared likely, at least to outside observers, who focused excessively on the force ratios.

But the effort was successful beyond all expectations. The tribal leaders in Anbar came together to negotiate an accord that ultimately produced the Anbar Awakening...
http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/michael-j-totten/anbar-awakening-surge

As you know many give the the Anbar Awakening more credit than the surge for short term peace in small areas of Iraq, and the Awakening, of course, was costing

And of course, these contracts come at a cost. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the U.S. is paying about $16 million dollars a month to members of the Sons of Iraq. Petraeus emphasized during his testimony that the "savings in vehicles not lost because of reduced violence — not to mention the priceless lives saved — have far outweighed the cost of their monthly contracts."

Nonetheless, there is movement to shift these costs to the Iraqi government. In May, the Senate Armed Services Committee approved a measure prohibiting the U.S. from funding reconstruction efforts, such as the Sons of Iraq, that cost more than $2 million.
http://www.factcheck.org/2008/08/us-government-paying-former-insurgents/

big time. Oh, someone might mention also that

Bush didn't know anything about Maliki, but put him in charge of Iraq anyway
http://www.vox.com/2014/8/12/5994749/bush-maliki-iraq

Oh yeah, Maliki was Jeb's brother's man and we all know how that

Nouri al-Maliki, the Prime Minister, is not quite the well-meaning but ineffective figure portrayed in Bush’s plan. He has done at least seven things in the
past six months which show that he plans to help Shias to secure control of every part of government and has no notion of sharing power with Sunnis.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=16295786

turned out. In fact

The Bloodbath We Created
Gareth Porter
December 14, 2006

[...]

For a period of months in late 2005 and early 2006, the administration fretted over the new threat of sectarian civil war. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad publicly resisted Shiite control over the interior and defense ministries and threatened to reconsider U.S. assistance if they were not put in non-sectarian hands. As reported by the Sunday Times of London December 10, Khalilzad even carried on secret negotiations with Sunni resistance leaders for two months on their offer to be integrated into the national army and to “clean up” the pro-Iranian militias in Baghdad with arms provided by the United States.

In the end, however, Bush pulled back from making a deal with the Sunnis.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=15587269

YUP. Those who were against the invasion had a pretty good idea that
it was a really dumb idea, which would most likely lead to a big war.

Which party was it that virtually went 100% for the 2003 invasion?
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/107-2002/h455

214 Yea. 6 Nay. You knew who.

And, would Jeb if elected in 2016 sign a deal which included no legal immunity for US troops on the ground in Iraq and Syria? Has anyone asked him that, yet?