Have been doing some back of the envelope kind of calculations the last few days (due to some offline correspondences I have had with a few other shareholders) and mentally tossing around a few possible numbers.
The ideas at this point are not quite mature enough to post as yet - and am doing a bit more research and digging to find comparable numbers in other biotech companies that have made it over that 'hump' to start generating revenues.
Given - even under some of our most optimistic outlooks and thinking - we're at least a year from seeing significant revenue.
But take this as one potential example. Obviously some additional animal testing and some non-ingested TOX testing would need to be done before any clinical testing could start,.... Best guess - at least a year, more likely closer to 2 as we know nothing ever works perfectly out of the box,...
IF a HerpesCide cream/ointment can be manufactured at even at just 500 g batch sizes.
And if each 500 g batch can be aliquoted into individual treatment-size portions with 100 mg of active HerpesCide into whatever carrier base to that ointment is used.
Individual 500 g batches would be divided into 5000 individual portions.
If those 5000 portions were to sell at even $500/treatment that would generate revenue of $2.5 MM. Yes - a sizable portion of that $2.5 M would go to packagers, distributors, and a defined portion would go to TheraCour for their costs & royalties,...
Assume that NNVC was able to retain even 40% if that after all costs and it gives the company $1,000,000 net revenue,....
And if batches can be made at least monthly,.... that's $12 MM net revenue each year,...
With ~60 MM shares (roughly) issued and $12 MM net revenue of $0.20 / share,....
And that's just for one potential 'Cide product. Not even including IV FluCide's potential value.
How many fledgling Pharma companies would love to have a net Earnings per Share of $0.20/year?
What if that is then translated into a P/E value of even a relatively modest 20x? That alone - absent any speculative play on future value is enough to get the ball rolling.
And once Kg-level quantities can be made,... the potential profit goes up even more.
“The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.”
- Leo Nikolaevich Tolstoy
