MannKind Corp. (MNKD)

[JLS]

Afrezza_Sales_Table_+_Analysis

Same data, new analysis format.

Raw weekly data is in gray columns. No change.

Cumulative weekly totals in green columns. No change.

New analysis method is in yellow cells. The object of the new method is to focus on the trailing thirteen weeks of cumulative data instead of all cumulative data, then to use a measurement window (or interval) of four weeks rather than the earlier method that looked at data week by week. One of the obvious benefits of the new method is that it will reduce week-by-week noise while trying to identify and observe trends.

Another advantage is that the 13-Wk Cumulative Sales column will make it easier to visually compare cumulative sales totals on a quarter-by-quarter basis (because that’s what financial analysts care about). Therefore, the all-time cumulative sales total is no longer illustrated in the table – it is replaced by the yellow column which tabulates sales over the last 13 weeks.

The following table shows the new format. Additional tables farther down illustrate which cells are involved during specific calculations.




The following table illustrates the previous 13-Wks of sales data (outlined in blue) that are used to calculate TTW Cumulative sales for the 13 Weeks Ending July 17.




The following table illustrates the method of calculating Weekly Growth Rate using two 4-Wk intervals offset by 1 Wk – the 4 Wks outlined in red, and an adjacent 4 Wks outlined in Blue and offset by one week.




The following table illustrates the method of calculating Monthly Growth Rate using two 4-Wk intervals offset by 4 Wks – the 4 Wks outlined in red, and an adjacent 4 Wks outlined in Blue and offset by 4 Wks.




Summary: Granted, it’s too early to tell, but clearly there is growth. However, it’s clearly steadily declining growth. Is growth rate flattening, and is it going to increase as advertising comes out?

IMO, opinions don't count. All that counts are sales.