AI
Saturday, July 25, 2015 7:51:22 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 7/24 2015 EOD
Signs still seem good for some kind of consolidation pattern with my best guess ATM being sideways with the high and low of the trading range yet to be established. We've been both bumping a descending short-term resistance for several days, we bumped again off the descending resistance on my minimal chart and we've been "riding" a long term support/resistance on my one-year chart. There are early signs we want to move up but it's a battle thus far.
The normal early volatility took price from the open of $0.344 via a very small opening block of 7,515 shares to:
- an early low of $0.335 at 9:41 and a high of $0.3541 at 10:30;
- that price was last seen at 10:42;
- stepped down to mid-$34xx range by 10:50;
- stayed in that range, with a couple one-minute moves to $0.354 at 11:16 and 11:19;
- 11:45 stepped down to low $0.34xx range, stayed flat there through 13:12;
- began step down to $0.3351 at 13:16 followed by short flat through 13:29;
- one minute pop up to $0.3479 at 13:30;
- began $0.3397-$0.3401 long flat 13:31 through 14:42, no trades 14:43-14:45;
- 14:46 one minute drop to $0.3351 and high as $0.3479 14:49-14:51;
- price immediately dropped to mid-$0.34xx range;
- stayed "flattish" $0.342x to $0.347x through 15:37;
- last twenty-four minutes volatility between $0.3474 and $0.34;
- which is where it closed with another very small 5,287 share closing block;
- AH 16:59 $0.303 x 1K, 17:27 $0.33 x 6K.
On the traditional TA front it's interesting that today's high of $0.3541 hit exactly on my minimal chart's descending resistance. Since we closed below it for the second consecutive day, we know it's confirmed resistance.
We had a flat open and a lower low, high and closed below the open and yesterday's low of $0.3424.
Thank goodness it was on volume down -32.55% from yesterday, consistent with consolidating (hopefully mostly sideways in our case) behavior. If this is the case, we should start to do what I suggested yesterday, { If we are going sideways (consolidating) I would expect us to trade above/around it today with a close above it. I'm not strongly disposed to having confidence in that happening though - one day is not enough to establish a behavioral trend. } Tomorrow may give a clue as to staying below the line or getting at/above it.
BTW, on my one-year chart there is a very short-term descending trading channel that we have challenged for three consecutive days. No break above yet but we penetrated resistance the last two days. This channel originates at the high and low of 7/2 and has the last touch of support and resistance at the high and low of 7/22. It appears we are battling to break above that and closed right on the resistance at $0.34 AFAICT..
The upshot of the heretofore unmentioned item is that we are trying to break above two constraining items - a short-term descending channel resistance and a long-term descending support/resistance (described some time back) we've been "riding" (trading both above and below) down since 6/26.
The oscillators I watch continue mixed with RSI, momentum, Williams %R, and ADX-related weakening a bit and MFI (untrusted by me) going flat and full stochastic, which is the only one above a neutral reading, strengthening. So the mixed indicators continue to suggest sideways but with more of them suggesting some upward bias ATM.
All in, I think the items are still suggestive of sideways for now but with a likely move to come soon. My take is a move up is most likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved the same direction, lower, with daily shorts at the lower end of my preferred range. So we have "normalcy" there. The price spread is somewhat concerning as it's rather wide and we might be in the start of a down trend rather than the sideways move I'm thinking we are entering. However ...
Since I include pre-market and AH trades, we need to keep in mind that we had the one 1K $0.$0.303 trade at 16:59, well below the official $0.3350 low seen at 9:41. We also had a 6K $0.33 trade at 17:27, also below the official low. Further, the spread was not established as in recent "days of yore" with a high set early in the day and a start of a plunge lower showing up fairly early with the low established later in the day as the price was "worked down" to satisfy some nefarious goal, my TFH is sure.
Given those considerations, using the $0.33 instead of the $0.3003 (-9.55% below the official low and -8.18% below the other AH trade), our spread would be 7.30%, a much more reasonable figure. Moreover if we use the official $0.335 instead of the $0.33 (only -1.49% below official - I'm not sure about the wisdom of discounting this) we get a spread of 5.70% which is quite acceptable.
My inclination is leaning towards discounting that ersatz spread shown in the table and using one of the other two, in which case there's no suggestion from that of more substantial downward movement tomorrow.
There is however a cautionary note associated with these AH trades. It's quite common to see these prices show up as the open the following day. So the normal MM action and volatility could "base" off this lower price rather than working initially off the close, which is more normal.
We'll just have to wait and see - these things are not consistent.
Notice that our VWAP moved lower only 3.05%, a reasonable degree, after a couple positive move days. It's on par with the moves of 7/15 and 7/20, one followed by a shallow move up and the other followed by a not-so-shallow move down in VWAP. But the latter was then followed by our 7/22 +5.16% VWAP day. There's other comparisons further back with similar negative moves that you my want to examine in some of my older EOD posts. Maybe a pattern will emerge, with consideration of the price trend at the time kept in mind.
Regardless, with volume off -32.08% I think we can say there's not a developing strength to any down move. This is what I would expect entering a sideways range of some kind. That's not to say it can't drop, but it should appear as the swings within some kind of channel, triangle, wedge, ... typical of consolidations.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated s such.
Bill
Signs still seem good for some kind of consolidation pattern with my best guess ATM being sideways with the high and low of the trading range yet to be established. We've been both bumping a descending short-term resistance for several days, we bumped again off the descending resistance on my minimal chart and we've been "riding" a long term support/resistance on my one-year chart. There are early signs we want to move up but it's a battle thus far.
The normal early volatility took price from the open of $0.344 via a very small opening block of 7,515 shares to:
- an early low of $0.335 at 9:41 and a high of $0.3541 at 10:30;
- that price was last seen at 10:42;
- stepped down to mid-$34xx range by 10:50;
- stayed in that range, with a couple one-minute moves to $0.354 at 11:16 and 11:19;
- 11:45 stepped down to low $0.34xx range, stayed flat there through 13:12;
- began step down to $0.3351 at 13:16 followed by short flat through 13:29;
- one minute pop up to $0.3479 at 13:30;
- began $0.3397-$0.3401 long flat 13:31 through 14:42, no trades 14:43-14:45;
- 14:46 one minute drop to $0.3351 and high as $0.3479 14:49-14:51;
- price immediately dropped to mid-$0.34xx range;
- stayed "flattish" $0.342x to $0.347x through 15:37;
- last twenty-four minutes volatility between $0.3474 and $0.34;
- which is where it closed with another very small 5,287 share closing block;
- AH 16:59 $0.303 x 1K, 17:27 $0.33 x 6K.
There was only one larger trade (>=20K), a sell of 53,399 for $0.3420 at 11:41. It was 6.18% of day's volume.Ending Period Per. Trade_|Period_|% Day_|PerEnd
Period Traded Dollar Val.|VWAP___|Volume|Buy ~%
09:41 78943 $27,052.07 $0.3427 9.14% 24.00%
10:30 43083 $14,960.62 $0.3473 4.99% 45.29%
10:42 37400 $13,186.60 $0.3526 4.33% 46.89%
10:50 17400 $6,089.94 $0.3500 2.01% 48.74%
11:44 170599 $58,695.33 $0.3441 19.75% 34.30%
13:12 197108 $67,350.48 $0.3417 22.82% 36.23%
13:29 19400 $6,542.41 $0.3372 2.25% 36.90%
13:30 3000 $1,020.60 $0.3402 0.35% 36.96%
14:42 95223 $32,368.94 $0.3399 11.03% 39.54%
14:51 82300 $28,122.98 $0.3417 9.53% 41.52%
15:37 45000 $15,497.58 $0.3444 5.21% 42.92%
16:00 65977 $22,495.15 $0.3410 7.64% 40.83%
17:27 7000 $2,283.00 $0.3261 0.81% 41.19%
On the traditional TA front it's interesting that today's high of $0.3541 hit exactly on my minimal chart's descending resistance. Since we closed below it for the second consecutive day, we know it's confirmed resistance.
We had a flat open and a lower low, high and closed below the open and yesterday's low of $0.3424.
Thank goodness it was on volume down -32.55% from yesterday, consistent with consolidating (hopefully mostly sideways in our case) behavior. If this is the case, we should start to do what I suggested yesterday, { If we are going sideways (consolidating) I would expect us to trade above/around it today with a close above it. I'm not strongly disposed to having confidence in that happening though - one day is not enough to establish a behavioral trend. } Tomorrow may give a clue as to staying below the line or getting at/above it.
BTW, on my one-year chart there is a very short-term descending trading channel that we have challenged for three consecutive days. No break above yet but we penetrated resistance the last two days. This channel originates at the high and low of 7/2 and has the last touch of support and resistance at the high and low of 7/22. It appears we are battling to break above that and closed right on the resistance at $0.34 AFAICT..
The upshot of the heretofore unmentioned item is that we are trying to break above two constraining items - a short-term descending channel resistance and a long-term descending support/resistance (described some time back) we've been "riding" (trading both above and below) down since 6/26.
The oscillators I watch continue mixed with RSI, momentum, Williams %R, and ADX-related weakening a bit and MFI (untrusted by me) going flat and full stochastic, which is the only one above a neutral reading, strengthening. So the mixed indicators continue to suggest sideways but with more of them suggesting some upward bias ATM.
All in, I think the items are still suggestive of sideways for now but with a likely move to come soon. My take is a move up is most likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved the same direction, lower, with daily shorts at the lower end of my preferred range. So we have "normalcy" there. The price spread is somewhat concerning as it's rather wide and we might be in the start of a down trend rather than the sideways move I'm thinking we are entering. However ...
Since I include pre-market and AH trades, we need to keep in mind that we had the one 1K $0.$0.303 trade at 16:59, well below the official $0.3350 low seen at 9:41. We also had a 6K $0.33 trade at 17:27, also below the official low. Further, the spread was not established as in recent "days of yore" with a high set early in the day and a start of a plunge lower showing up fairly early with the low established later in the day as the price was "worked down" to satisfy some nefarious goal, my TFH is sure.
Given those considerations, using the $0.33 instead of the $0.3003 (-9.55% below the official low and -8.18% below the other AH trade), our spread would be 7.30%, a much more reasonable figure. Moreover if we use the official $0.335 instead of the $0.33 (only -1.49% below official - I'm not sure about the wisdom of discounting this) we get a spread of 5.70% which is quite acceptable.
My inclination is leaning towards discounting that ersatz spread shown in the table and using one of the other two, in which case there's no suggestion from that of more substantial downward movement tomorrow.
There is however a cautionary note associated with these AH trades. It's quite common to see these prices show up as the open the following day. So the normal MM action and volatility could "base" off this lower price rather than working initially off the close, which is more normal.
We'll just have to wait and see - these things are not consistent.
Notice that our VWAP moved lower only 3.05%, a reasonable degree, after a couple positive move days. It's on par with the moves of 7/15 and 7/20, one followed by a shallow move up and the other followed by a not-so-shallow move down in VWAP. But the latter was then followed by our 7/22 +5.16% VWAP day. There's other comparisons further back with similar negative moves that you my want to examine in some of my older EOD posts. Maybe a pattern will emerge, with consideration of the price trend at the time kept in mind.
Regardless, with volume off -32.08% I think we can say there's not a developing strength to any down move. This is what I would expect entering a sideways range of some kind. That's not to say it can't drop, but it should appear as the swings within some kind of channel, triangle, wedge, ... typical of consolidations.
As always, much is experimental and should be treated s such.
Bill
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