Friday, July 24, 2015 8:34:48 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 7/23 2015 EOD
In summary, I still believe that sideways is most likely at a higher level than where we exited recently. There are a couple points of concern if we don't close above my minimal chart's descending resistance. With volume off big on a down day though there's no suggestion of strength to carry us lower ATM. Over time, sans a sentiment change, weak volume would tend to cause a drift lower though as MMs try and make some money using their normal tools.
Intra-day returned to the old nasty behavior with a vengeance. We had the usual opening volatility with a range of $0.3546 to $0.375, a brief flattish period from 9:38 through 10:04 in the mid-to-low $0.36xx range, and then came the old move down to set the first new intra-day low of $0.3534 at 10:06. Then a re-trace up to $0.3659 at 10:34 was followed by a flattish period through 11:08. A one-minute move to $0.367 was almost immediately followed by a steep drop to the next new intra-day low of $0.3424 at 11:50. Price moved back up to the $0.347x-$0.35 area and went flattish through 12:50. Hm, I wonder what came next.
Oh, yeah. Another move down! At least we didn't make a new intra-day low. Anyway, down to $0.343 and shortly began moving back up to $0.3588 (13:41), back down to $0.3441 (14:13), and a then long flattish period in the mid-to-high $0.35xx range through 15:25. Then a one minute pop to as high as $0.3585 at 15:26 was followed by an ugly swan-dive down to $0.3441 at 15:59, where we also closed the day.
11:34:33 $0.3500 36,200
11:34:35 $0.3500 21,000
12:10:16 $0.3452 21,400
14:27:23 $0.3499 21,600
15:21:33 $0.3496 31,200
The opening and closing blocks were again abnormally small.
On the traditional TA front, yesterday's bump up against my descending red resistance line was prophetic as we opened below it, made a very brief move above it (~$0.357 today?), and traded below it from 11:31 onward, but for three one-minute periods. We closed well below that with the last half-hour plunging on mostly low volume to $0.3441.
Thank goodness volume was down -43.92% to 1,271,526 on such a down day. This loss of momentum gives hope that my prediction will hold: { ... we can cautiously look for a trend up to begin after a brief pause, at most(?) as the market takes a breather to adjust to the new scenario. I suspect a sideways move, briefly, at a higher level including some small perturbations up and down, and then the start of an up trend }.
Of course being human, today's nastiness makes me doubt if I got it right as to "brief" and "at a higher level". But I will have to have patience rather than jumping to conclusions based on a single day's behavior.
There's additional positive suggestions by a couple of very short-term trend lines I've not published that are currently suggesting support. However they re descending. Regardless, our trading is above both but today's close was just below the upper one at ~$0.343 today. We don't want to see it confirm with another close below tomorrow. Tomorrow it looks like it would be ~$0.336ish.
The oscillators I watch are mixed with weakening appearing for RSI, momentum and Williams %R. Some improvement was exhibited by MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic and ADX-related indicators.
These mixed readings don't suggest anything but sideways to me as all the changes were "smallish" and no consensus was presented. This is typical during consolidation, so there's a good likelihood that sideways holds.
The 13-period Bollinger band continues to "pinch" with the spread being now ~$0.316 - $0.392. We are essentially trading in the mid-range, another positive I think.
My minimal chart's current descending resistance line, the upper red line at the bottom right of the chart, appears to be ~$0.353 today. If we are going sideways (consolidating) I would expect us to trade above/around it today with a close above it. I'm not strongly disposed to having confidence in that happening though - one day is not enough to establish a behavioral trend.
If we do trade above it the potential resistance denoted by the yellow line could become a factor, although I doubt it would happen today since it's ~$0.39. But as we move sideways (if we do) it could come into play as it is descending.
In sum, nothing to change my sideways call here.
Well, yesterday when discussing the daily short and buy percentages I said, in part, {... a good indication of normalcy ... } I was thinking of the longer-term normalcy, not the recent down-trend normalcy that was predominant during our grinds lower. Alas, we got what we got, not what we wanted. I also said, in part { ... they are both are at unsustainable extremes ... These metrics will return to normal. } I didn't expect, likely due to misjudging which normalcy would appear, to see such a drastic shift in only one day.
Regardless, percentages for both daily short sales and buys went in the same direction, a good thing and what is normal in a normal market, and the daily short percentage is well above my desired maximum of ~45% and I expect it to continue lower near-term. The buy percentage ended in a normal range typical of a falling VWAP. It was a struggle to get there though as much of the day was spent well below 40% (32.2% - 38.91% 11:45 - 14:15). With prices predominantly staying below $0.35 from 14:00 through the end of the day, the buying percentage improved. I'm guessing MMs and maybe some shorters doing covering buys.
Notice that the price spread has narrowed substantially. It's still a wee bit high, but within a range, especially after yesterday's big move, that suggest sideways is likely.
Overall, nothing here to make me think otherwise.
Experimentally,
Bill
In summary, I still believe that sideways is most likely at a higher level than where we exited recently. There are a couple points of concern if we don't close above my minimal chart's descending resistance. With volume off big on a down day though there's no suggestion of strength to carry us lower ATM. Over time, sans a sentiment change, weak volume would tend to cause a drift lower though as MMs try and make some money using their normal tools.
Intra-day returned to the old nasty behavior with a vengeance. We had the usual opening volatility with a range of $0.3546 to $0.375, a brief flattish period from 9:38 through 10:04 in the mid-to-low $0.36xx range, and then came the old move down to set the first new intra-day low of $0.3534 at 10:06. Then a re-trace up to $0.3659 at 10:34 was followed by a flattish period through 11:08. A one-minute move to $0.367 was almost immediately followed by a steep drop to the next new intra-day low of $0.3424 at 11:50. Price moved back up to the $0.347x-$0.35 area and went flattish through 12:50. Hm, I wonder what came next.
Oh, yeah. Another move down! At least we didn't make a new intra-day low. Anyway, down to $0.343 and shortly began moving back up to $0.3588 (13:41), back down to $0.3441 (14:13), and a then long flattish period in the mid-to-high $0.35xx range through 15:25. Then a one minute pop to as high as $0.3585 at 15:26 was followed by an ugly swan-dive down to $0.3441 at 15:59, where we also closed the day.
The larger blocks (>= 20K) were back to abnormally low levels. They totaled 131,400 shares, 10.33% of day's volume and had a of VWAP $0.3491.Ending Period Per. Trade_|Period_|% Day_|Period
Period Traded Dollar Val.|VWAP___|Volume|Buy ~%
09:37 109959 $39,937.46 $0.3632 8.65% 60.12%
10:04 59921 $21,714.10 $0.3624 4.71% 55.27%
10:13 67509 $24,161.26 $0.3579 5.31% 46.36%
10:34 41293 $14,841.97 $0.3594 3.25% 44.53%
11:08 120956 $43,673.27 $0.3611 9.51% 43.71%
11:50 327657 $115,759.18 $0.3533 25.77% 32.62%
12:50 156154 $54,229.08 $0.3473 12.28% 35.98%
13:41 65831 $22,814.45 $0.3466 5.18% 38.00%
14:13 44765 $15,560.82 $0.3476 3.52% 38.87%
15:24 134150 $46,741.75 $0.3484 10.55% 41.01%
15:59 136008 $47,657.25 $0.3504 10.70% 43.17%
19:06 4080 $1,403.93 $0.3441 0.32% 43.03%
11:34:33 $0.3500 36,200
11:34:35 $0.3500 21,000
12:10:16 $0.3452 21,400
14:27:23 $0.3499 21,600
15:21:33 $0.3496 31,200
The opening and closing blocks were again abnormally small.
On the traditional TA front, yesterday's bump up against my descending red resistance line was prophetic as we opened below it, made a very brief move above it (~$0.357 today?), and traded below it from 11:31 onward, but for three one-minute periods. We closed well below that with the last half-hour plunging on mostly low volume to $0.3441.
Thank goodness volume was down -43.92% to 1,271,526 on such a down day. This loss of momentum gives hope that my prediction will hold: { ... we can cautiously look for a trend up to begin after a brief pause, at most(?) as the market takes a breather to adjust to the new scenario. I suspect a sideways move, briefly, at a higher level including some small perturbations up and down, and then the start of an up trend }.
Of course being human, today's nastiness makes me doubt if I got it right as to "brief" and "at a higher level". But I will have to have patience rather than jumping to conclusions based on a single day's behavior.
There's additional positive suggestions by a couple of very short-term trend lines I've not published that are currently suggesting support. However they re descending. Regardless, our trading is above both but today's close was just below the upper one at ~$0.343 today. We don't want to see it confirm with another close below tomorrow. Tomorrow it looks like it would be ~$0.336ish.
The oscillators I watch are mixed with weakening appearing for RSI, momentum and Williams %R. Some improvement was exhibited by MFI (untrusted by me), full stochastic and ADX-related indicators.
These mixed readings don't suggest anything but sideways to me as all the changes were "smallish" and no consensus was presented. This is typical during consolidation, so there's a good likelihood that sideways holds.
The 13-period Bollinger band continues to "pinch" with the spread being now ~$0.316 - $0.392. We are essentially trading in the mid-range, another positive I think.
My minimal chart's current descending resistance line, the upper red line at the bottom right of the chart, appears to be ~$0.353 today. If we are going sideways (consolidating) I would expect us to trade above/around it today with a close above it. I'm not strongly disposed to having confidence in that happening though - one day is not enough to establish a behavioral trend.
If we do trade above it the potential resistance denoted by the yellow line could become a factor, although I doubt it would happen today since it's ~$0.39. But as we move sideways (if we do) it could come into play as it is descending.
In sum, nothing to change my sideways call here.
Well, yesterday when discussing the daily short and buy percentages I said, in part, {... a good indication of normalcy ... } I was thinking of the longer-term normalcy, not the recent down-trend normalcy that was predominant during our grinds lower. Alas, we got what we got, not what we wanted. I also said, in part { ... they are both are at unsustainable extremes ... These metrics will return to normal. } I didn't expect, likely due to misjudging which normalcy would appear, to see such a drastic shift in only one day.
Regardless, percentages for both daily short sales and buys went in the same direction, a good thing and what is normal in a normal market, and the daily short percentage is well above my desired maximum of ~45% and I expect it to continue lower near-term. The buy percentage ended in a normal range typical of a falling VWAP. It was a struggle to get there though as much of the day was spent well below 40% (32.2% - 38.91% 11:45 - 14:15). With prices predominantly staying below $0.35 from 14:00 through the end of the day, the buying percentage improved. I'm guessing MMs and maybe some shorters doing covering buys.
Notice that the price spread has narrowed substantially. It's still a wee bit high, but within a range, especially after yesterday's big move, that suggest sideways is likely.
Overall, nothing here to make me think otherwise.
Experimentally,
Bill
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