Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (ONCY)

[beambe]

Reolysin could achieve peak sales of $512 million.




http://seekingalpha.com/article/3337965-oncolytics-killing-cancer-with-a-virus

According to Edison Investment Research, Reolysin could capture 30% of the head and neck cancer market at peak. I think the assumption is slightly conservative, considering Reolysin could become the best-in-class product. I am assuming a 40% market share and 40% probability of commercialization. According to data from Torreya Partners, the probability of approval from Phase II is around 40%. While Reolysin has completed a sort of Phase III in head and neck cancer, there is still some time before a regulatory filing. Therefore, I have taken the probability of success at 40%. Based on these assumptions and the size of the market, Reolysin could achieve peak sales of $512 million.