Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[CuresForHumanity]

Thank you. The reason I was trying to make his clear was because there are bashers who make it sound like we are being diluted to death. And I wanted to make it clear that it's an easy calculation to determine dilution.

In reality PPHM appears to be diluting at 10 million shares for the year. Assuming a fast track phase 3 takes three years and we make extra revenue from the avid side, we should be at the most at 205 M outstanding at approval plus I think I remember another 25 M shares reserved for employees. At that point, the market cap should be > 1.5 billion. So if I take the cheapest market cap of 1.5 B which equates to 1500 M and divide by the most outstanding shares based on history of this company's dilution rate and add the extra 25 M, I get 1500/ 230 = 6.5 per share this time next year/ year and a half. However, in reality the market cap should be much higher because we should have some indications from MSK on other recommended promising studies and the other phase 2/3 trial that will already have been started for breast cancer. It seems to me that now is the very best time to enter this stock. And there is always the possibility of an early buyout or partnership which would move the price faster.

The only gamble really is will phase 3 meet the same stellar results as phase 2. My bet is that it will prove to be better as we won't have patients that received bavi in the control arm.