Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 6/26 2016 EOD

NOTE: I think today is mostly useless for my normal purposes but I thought having a record of how we behaved on the day of R2K removal, and after "window dressing" was mostly over if my belief is correct, might be useful for other equities at times in the future. So I'll skip the usual traditional TA and deeper look at my experimental stuff (note the short % CaptWhizBang!).

Most of the details I will touch upon aren't helpful, IMO, other than noting trends that might also appear for issues that might suffer similar disrespect in the future.

Is it safe to assume that if we were being added back in the behavior would invert?

I thought a 1-minute chart to accompany any narrative about intra-day behavior might be both helpful and more dramatic in illustrating the effects of "window dressing" season having previously closed (I believe) and our stock being removed from the Russell Indexes. As to "window dressing closed", see yesterday, a few paragraphs ending with { ... their stuff settled by EOM, which with T+3 settlement would be 6/30 from Thursday. }

The 1-minute chart suggests to me this assessment was correct because ...

Note the leg up from the open through 10:06, the short flat through 10:24, and the re-trace of ~1/2 the rise through 10:42 (roughly a 45 degree slope).

On the prior five days this was never seen (and not all that often prior to those days either). Instead the M.O was always a very brief pop near the open followed by trending down, sometimes starting immediately, sometimes a variable-length "flat" and then down. We did have one day of "pop", down, recover about 2/3rds of the loss, and then a long period of flat/down combination.

So I can say with confidence that behavior today was different than the recent normal which I felt was in the "window dressing" period.

Anyway, subsequent to 10:42 you can see an erratic "flat" running through 11:59 followed by a near-perfect "flat" through 14:49.

After that came the cascade down through 14:48, a brief jagged up-down-up-down sequence through 15:37 that was a net "flat" in visual effect but death on VWAP, and then 15:49 ended a short sideways with the same visual net and VWAP effect.

The subsequent big spike down included a closing block of 20,530,772 shares at $0.4213 as well as ~381.3K, 250K x 2, 13K and ~200.8K, all at the same $0.4213 price. Notice how the price and buy percentage acted subsequently in the AH trades.

                                            Period-|-Day's|Run'g 
 End Tm -Per Tr $- Per Min Per Max Per Vol. -VWAP -|-Vol %|Buy % 
  10:06   $110,396 $0.4925 $0.5100   221009 $0.4995  0.52% 67.04% 
  10:24    $28,188 $0.5084 $0.5100    55361 $0.5092  0.13% 61.79% 
  10:42    $45,871 $0.5000 $0.5089    91021 $0.5040  0.21% 52.36% 
  11:59   $115,125 $0.4979 $0.5033   230571 $0.4993  0.54% 45.34% 
  14:09   $150,366 $0.4966 $0.4980   302516 $0.4971  0.71% 47.87% 
  14:48   $437,045 $0.4450 $0.4967   929579 $0.4702  2.17% 35.24% 
  15:37   $457,517 $0.4360 $0.4583  1022952 $0.4473  2.38% 33.73% 
  15:49   $200,408 $0.4320 $0.4450   457036 $0.4385  1.07% 32.43% 
  15:59   $650,111 $0.4100 $0.4400  1531603 $0.4245  3.57% 32.94% 
  16:00 $9,110,976 $0.4213 $0.4213 21625863 $0.4213 50.40% 83.57% 
  19:46 $6,928,072 $0.4212 $0.4550 16430000 $0.4217 38.29% 51.57%

Just for coherence and to support one brief note, my updated minimal chart seemed appropriate.



The only thing I want to mention is we want to see if the up-trend beginning that was suggested by the last green bar resumes within a day or two. I suspect it will quickly return now that both "window dressing" and R2K adjustment is over and some folks with big money may be flush with shares they need to distribute at a profit. I'm thinking "sell side" folks.

There is a possibility that shorters also took advantage and that effect would appear in the report due 7/10. I sort of hope they weren't too aggressive. That would eliminate the possibility of a "short squeeze" if we were to see a larege spate of bullish behavior materialize!



Bill