Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

JL-

The average AA level in Americans is 60% higher than the average Japanese. The average EPA/AA ratio in Japan is 7-10 times higher than in America.

- The average EPA level in Japan is 3 times higher than in America.
- The average EPA/AA ratio in Japan is (7-)10 times higher than in America.

-> The average AA level in Americans is 233% higher (x 3.33) than the average Japanese and not +60% (Otherwise, the math does not work)

BUT

If on the other hand we just equalize the EPA levels we get AA/EPA ratio of 1.6 to 1.0

We could assume that EPA level won't be equalized, it will be 2.7-fold higher (based on ANCHOR data)
-> AA/EPA ratio of 1.24 to 1 (EPA/AA ratio of 0.81 to 1)

If AA level will be reduced by 5.6% (as in JELIS and assume that +2g EPA effect eliminated by higher / stronger statin) -> AA/EPA ratio of 1.17 to 1 (EPA/AA ratio of 0.86 to 1) (Note: AA should be reduced by 19% for 1:1 ratio)

Will wee see 2.33% (10.7% / 4.6 yrs) in the active arm? Is it so simple? No, otherwise Amarin does not spend 100s of millions on R-IT. A lot of variance is exist between JELIS and R-IT, like:
- male : female %
- Japanese : American/Westen
- open : double-blinded
and a lot of other

We could say (and we agree) that EPA has affect on event and likely the magnitude is significant (the study will be stopped before the end - at interim as the latest), but that's all.

But it isn't a problem: to stop R-IT, min 28.9% eff. is necessary. The difference is big between this and 50%+, but this difference has a meaningful affect on people life, but not on valuation.

V users won't be +66% if eff.% will be 50%+ vs. 28.9%. The difference will be resulted in the faster run-up to peak sales.

ie. (numbers are for example only, not a projection) 28.9% vs 50%+:

users at end of year 2: 1M vs 5M
peak users: 10M vs 10.5M
valuation: $20B vs $25B