Elite Pharmaceuticals Inc (ELTP)

[no2koolaid]

According to some physicians, it is the illegal misuse and diversion of the pain meds that serve as the principle barrier to their prescribing opioids; despite the acknowledgement that those suffering from pain are an underserved population. So, my hypothesis is that ADF has the potential to unlock a segment of the pain med market heretofore denied to opioid pain meds. How much might that be? A conservative estimate would be another 5-10 percent of the market. For the sake of simplicity, if we assume a $60 Billion global pain med market, of which opioid pain meds are roughly 18 percent, another 5-10 percent means that, with ADFs, the global market potential would be 23-28 percent of $60B, or roughly $14-17 Billion…with a composite 3.8 percent CAGR. Because ADF may well become the required standard for future market entry, the competitive landscape will be altered significantly and, rather than the first entrants, it is the disruptive technology that we can expect to become dominant. As with any disruptive tech, it may not be intuitively obvious and, thus, requires effective sales and marketing to garner share. For Elite this means that, absent sales & marketing capabilities, they need to find a partner capable of performing those tasks and do so before approval because the timelines require planning. Unless, of course, they have designs on being acquired and that game is afoot.