Tuesday, April 21, 2015 12:04:48 AM
Nope, no longer long, I'm afraid. Not holding puts anymore though either (however tempted I was today..).
Really just comes down to a judgment call. I think there are better places to invest. I think the pps was manipulated up, and for that reason and a few others will imo not last.
I'm not impressed with Direct. And I think management are being evasive about it now for a reason. I don't think it has to do with issues between them and MDA anymore. They aren't running out and stating patients are seeing necrosis 2 months into their regimen, and writing PRs that make it sound like genuine ORR was occurring. That was the BS that got them into trouble.
But I digress.
I do think L has a good shot, though I think it will be a while. However, should strong data be announced, if I was long, I would sell and leave immediately. I have no idea what sales will be like or how long it will take to ramp up (or if they ever will sufficiently).
Direct Ph II might actually get some ORR, but, that's iffy, and anyway those data are far away.
I just don't like the feeling of being long here right now. I don't think the Ph III has almost any chance of being halted at first interim, and don't think the second will trigger until winter the earliest.
Meanwhile a few other stocks I like and have been vocal about look like a much better place to invest. Very attractive entries to me.
I suppose it's possible that the pps will go up from here, but I think the greater likelihood is it goes the other way. If it's over $12-$15 I'll probably avoid it altogether, regardless. If it's under $7, I might dip a toe back in. Maybe fall-winter. I would like to be in it when Ph III data are released.
C'est la vie.
I'd offer you advice, but I just don't care about your money, unless you give me money to care about your money. I might even be tricking you with the above post...
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