AI
Saturday, April 18, 2015 8:44:06 PM
Hey Bobwins and company...
Its been quite a while since I've paid a visit, I'm glad to see you are still posting even if the board has quieted down quite a bit. Don't know if anyone remembers me.
My investing has been less than successful since 2011. I got out right at the top and was quite a wealthy guy for a couple of months.
I then went back in way too early and stayed in way too long. I still have enough to retire (perhaps with a little belt tightening) and did some seriously good work in my day job, so I'm grateful overall for how things are turning out.
Right now I'm about 1/3 gold stocks, 1/3 oily stocks and the rest cash and actually making a bit of money this year.
Would like to maybe drop in occasionally.
I closed my blog, but every weekend log my investing thinking.
FWIW, here's some excerpts of this week's gold update.
1. BULLISH LONG-TERM THEME (NO CHANGE): Indian and Chinese jewelry demand will grow faster than their economies increasing gold demand and pushing the price of gold and gold miners up. Western investment demand will turn around to follow the Chindian led trend and as a safe-haven as either another round of volatility and fear picks up in the general markets and or as the Jewelry demand induced price trend reversal becomes recognized. Meanwhile, gold is universally hated... hated by governments and banksters (who hate the competition it provides to its money they print), hated by financial investing firms (mutal funds, brokerages, etc.) as they don't get an annual percentage of gold holder's money and by former gold investors who lost big time after the 2007-2011 parabolic price rise.
3. BULLISH: GLD inventories update (see chart below) – GLD inventories rose (.7%) a bit this week while the price of gold fell .4%. The end of sustained western institutional selling changes demand/supply enough to push up the price of gold. With just this one week rise, the four-week annualized inventory decline (just for GLD) effectively increases gold mine supply by just 2.5% (the lowest in six weeks). This is still enough to suppress the price of gold. Still, this change seems significant with inventories rising while the price of gold fell.
5. BULLISH GOLD MINERS: GDX (at +7.2% ytd) is doing better than gold itself (+1.7%) which is edging out the S&P 500 w/o dividends (at +1.1%) year-to-date. We now seems to be seeing momentum traders (and institutional investors) join in.
9. BEARISH: Seasonals... NO CHANGE... My analysis of similar recent years (near but under 55 SMA in mid April) indicates significantly better entry points were available later in the year for 6 of 8 years with most appear in May under the lower 55-day 2.0 std dev bollinger. The years are 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014. I consider 2003 (end of Internet Bubble collapse), 2009 (global financial crisis) and 2013 (gold price collapse) to be outliers. Apart from those years all had good reentries in May near or below the bollinger. That's my trading plan now.
Let me know if this kind of thinking adds value to your board. Its not exactly junior stock picking, but one thing I learned the hard way was that if I picked the wrong sector/industry even with my best stock picking I still get creamed.
MontyHigh, formally of www.worldofwallstreet.us 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 8 4 6
Its been quite a while since I've paid a visit, I'm glad to see you are still posting even if the board has quieted down quite a bit. Don't know if anyone remembers me.
My investing has been less than successful since 2011. I got out right at the top and was quite a wealthy guy for a couple of months.
I then went back in way too early and stayed in way too long. I still have enough to retire (perhaps with a little belt tightening) and did some seriously good work in my day job, so I'm grateful overall for how things are turning out.
Right now I'm about 1/3 gold stocks, 1/3 oily stocks and the rest cash and actually making a bit of money this year.
Would like to maybe drop in occasionally.
I closed my blog, but every weekend log my investing thinking.
FWIW, here's some excerpts of this week's gold update.
1. BULLISH LONG-TERM THEME (NO CHANGE): Indian and Chinese jewelry demand will grow faster than their economies increasing gold demand and pushing the price of gold and gold miners up. Western investment demand will turn around to follow the Chindian led trend and as a safe-haven as either another round of volatility and fear picks up in the general markets and or as the Jewelry demand induced price trend reversal becomes recognized. Meanwhile, gold is universally hated... hated by governments and banksters (who hate the competition it provides to its money they print), hated by financial investing firms (mutal funds, brokerages, etc.) as they don't get an annual percentage of gold holder's money and by former gold investors who lost big time after the 2007-2011 parabolic price rise.
3. BULLISH: GLD inventories update (see chart below) – GLD inventories rose (.7%) a bit this week while the price of gold fell .4%. The end of sustained western institutional selling changes demand/supply enough to push up the price of gold. With just this one week rise, the four-week annualized inventory decline (just for GLD) effectively increases gold mine supply by just 2.5% (the lowest in six weeks). This is still enough to suppress the price of gold. Still, this change seems significant with inventories rising while the price of gold fell.
5. BULLISH GOLD MINERS: GDX (at +7.2% ytd) is doing better than gold itself (+1.7%) which is edging out the S&P 500 w/o dividends (at +1.1%) year-to-date. We now seems to be seeing momentum traders (and institutional investors) join in.
9. BEARISH: Seasonals... NO CHANGE... My analysis of similar recent years (near but under 55 SMA in mid April) indicates significantly better entry points were available later in the year for 6 of 8 years with most appear in May under the lower 55-day 2.0 std dev bollinger. The years are 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014. I consider 2003 (end of Internet Bubble collapse), 2009 (global financial crisis) and 2013 (gold price collapse) to be outliers. Apart from those years all had good reentries in May near or below the bollinger. That's my trading plan now.
Let me know if this kind of thinking adds value to your board. Its not exactly junior stock picking, but one thing I learned the hard way was that if I picked the wrong sector/industry even with my best stock picking I still get creamed.
MontyHigh, formally of www.worldofwallstreet.us 2 4 0 3 8 3 6 8 4 6
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
