NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[JG36]

Puffer's $350 a share prediction.

Oh hell, I was bored, so I looked, and this is what I found.

First, some context. I was explaining why you might buy a stock that you think has much worse than 50% odds of succeeding. At the time NNVC was going for about 0.50 a share, pre-split (not very different from what it is now). I pointed out that if you think NNVC will be worth at least $5 a share after FDA approval of Flucide then it makes sense to buy at 0.50 so long as you think the odds of success are significantly better than 10%. That $5 number was merely a "for instance", not a prediction. Obviously if you think the stock price will be much higher than $5 then you'd be willing to buy at 0.50 with much worse than 10% odds of success. But Puffer misinterpreted my $5 number as a prediction, and here was his response:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=84548319

$5 if works in humans? That would be a market cap of only $750M... you would be off by a factor of about 20. The market for an effective flu drug is estimated at 3 to 7B annually. (Tamiflu did about $3B in '09). Take the low number and slap a modest 5X sales on it and you get $15B in market cap for the one drug. That allows nothing for the instant upward revaluation of their entire portfolio once the first drug is approved, not to mention sales of those drugs.

Obviously Puffer believed $5 to be too low by at least a factor of 20, i.e., he considered a reasonable price for NNVC stock after FDA approval of Flucide to be $100 a share, $350 post reverse split.

BTW, I still consider the odds of NNVC succeeding to be well south of 50%. And I see no reason to believe that NNVC will necessarily be worth 5x sales, when many profitable businesses are worth a lot less than that.