Friday, April 17, 2015 8:06:57 AM
Conclusions:
1. Multistem appears to be able to extend the treatment window in stroke from
a few hours to 36 hours. That is dramatic.
2. As an informative PII study, we are excited because the data is clear and
suggests a modestly powered pivotal trial should be able to replicate the
sub-group data set that this trial produced.
3. The risk/reward equation is highly favorable. Safety and tolerability are not
an issue so the question is: What is the treatment window? We know the
dose work is close and the endpoints work.
4. Addressing the Bears: Bearish investors will focus on the fact that the trial
did not show a p-value on the primary endpoint(s). We believe the bear's
concerns are more than reflected in Athersys' low market valuation. The
pathway forward in stroke is now clear. We expect that Athersys will pioneer
forward with a global pivotal trial (US, EU and Japan). As such our valuation
metrics, and subsequent price target are unchanged. In other words, hang
on. Less
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