@Sun 7 - The reason Whiting filed for a permit to (greatly) exceed the 500 MCF per day flaring limit is that gas has overtaken the water column. What follows is just conjecture.
Earlier this month, I'm told, fluids flows, consisting of an oil and drilling water mix, were brisk. Even so, the operators had recovered much less than half of the water pumped into the formation during fracking operations. But in recent weeks, the gas flows picked up, requiring that fluid flows be cut back sharply, so as to prevent the well from exceeding the 500 mcfpd regulatory limit. At the current rate, it could take a year and a half -- maybe two -- to clean up the well.
The good news is that the fluid is rumored to have a high oil content. The bad news is that less water is coming out as a result. Even at 1,000 bfpd, we're talking about several months to see what Moroni 11M can really do. Because water is heavier than oil, it retards flows. Cleaning it up is an essential first step in realizing a well's production potential.
In the late-1990s, the Moroni 1A well, drilled by Cimarron Energy, had exceptional flows, but failed due to technical problems. Based on this record plus conversations with knowledgeable geologists, my guess is that, when the Moroni 11M is finally produced at optimum capacity, we'll be looking at 2,000 bopd or more, plus gas (they'll need to build a gas pipeline up the valley, past Fountain Green and west to the trunk line at Nephi -- about 12 miles).
But Moroni 11M may not be the optimal configuration. That's because the Tununk is not behaving according the standard model for shale. There is no way the formation should have absorbed as much water as it did. It is apparently highly permeable -- pre-fracked, if you will. This suggests two things. First, it might be optimal in the future to complete into this zone with much shorter horizontals, or perhaps just vertical well bores. Intensive fracking, as was done this time, might not be needed. This would mean tighter well spacing, and quicker completions, than currently envisioned. Second, high permeability should translate to a lower decline rate than seen in, say, the Eagle Ford or Bakken shales. Instead of one well per square mile producing 2,000 bopd, you might get eight wells producing, I dunno, 300-400 bopd. We'll see.
The Oil and Gas Commission very likely will not want this completion dragging on for many, many months. Expect gas flares that are visible from the International Space Station!
