Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[aleajactaest]

I am not suggesting it is impossible that other innovative companies will succeed or that Wave will necessarily fail. But it is inhabiting an environment with elements in common with four of those five examples. And they help to explain why things haven't happened the way a simple, optimistic, unobstructed view of the market might suggest. The sort which folks often came away from the unsafe harbour proclaiming over the years: Wave's success is inevitable.

No. It is not. Armp pointed out you can even have a great product and not succeed. He gave an example.

He focussed on two critical variables that explain why many companies fail: control of the supply chain and access to the market via distribution networks. I tend to focus on a third variable, which is demand.

For Wave to succeed, in my view it needs to have each of these three factors swing in its favour. Entering markets dominated by incumbent operators is intrinsically hard.