Global Brokerage Inc. (GLBR)

[kashix]

~$3.60-$4.77 / share at book value using post SNB numbers.

Ok. If you're here investing in FXCM you'd know they're a good company and they'd definitely make the 4/16 payment. Whether they can pay the full 300 in 1 year, we can't say for sure yet. But the longer they wait, the quicker the interest will eat them up, so you can believe them when they say they're confident in paying off the loan in one year. It's their best move. If they miss the 4/16 payment, they may as well bankrupt (because of hefty 30M fine), so they WILL pay it. If they miss the 300M by end of year there will be no penalty but the interest will hinder their growth depending on how much principal is left on the loan.


Now if LUK wanted to sell FXCM, they'd want to reap the most out of their asset distribution table. In order to do that they'd want FXCM to sell for at least 850M after the loan is paid due to the one sided 90% - 10% of the second payment. Since the loan will be paid, it'll be 90% of 500M, which = 450M, leaving FXCM 50M. So 175M+50M=225M/47M = ~$4.77 per share THAT WE GET. Furthermore, unless LUK can find a better investment opportunity with this money, they have no reason to sell FXCM because they get 60% of further increase in equity.