Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

You have right (5.5% placebo rate) if we use the full 2 years, however the 2 years (from 1/1/16 to 12/31/17) is the maximum extent for 2016-2017. We will reach the 967th during the second half of February (acc. to my calc.), so the real period is 22 months (March 16 - Dec 17) for the 645 events.

To get 209 events in the placebo and 104.5 events in the active arm if there is a 50% reduction in events the placebo rate should be 6.0% during the 22 months.

Furthermore, to get an average 5.5% in the placebo arm, the new enrollees (1,500 after May 2013) have to have 6.33% event rate (for average 6.0% - 7.67%), assuming that the early enrollees' (2,500 before May 2013) rate is 5.0% (lower than the expected 5.2% but not lower)