common sense says it is going down. once $ and crude start really hitting multinationals (which many make up S&P500) the bull market will be over....why else hasn't the FED raisedT rates? because they know it will kill the bull market, the only other place to make serious money in a stagnating economy. kill that momo and we have real problems.
$ strength is going to increase which will push oil lower thus affect earnings. Retail spending is a joke. gas has already risen as much as $0.78 in one month in some states..(CA) due to strikes, refinery issues. spending wont be there, 2013-2014 was the golden period and it has passed. Market returns going forward will be minimal if there are any once headwinds start to hit this over extended market. QE is over and we will see these affects soon. If I was a hedge fund I would be shorting this market now.
take AAPL out of the S&P 500 and it would not be a pretty picture not to mention all the stock buybacks and other financial engineering which is a façade to a slowing economy.
if OIL does not rebound to $70-$75...there will be a global recession and from the looks of it, oil is going lower after this huge inventory number. Demand is there, but not nearly enough.
anyways..one last thing, what is your trading discipline or thought on buying stocks that sell off 25-50% in a couple days or weeks..examples BOBE, LL
bought LL on Tuesday and got out on short cover rally. this technique seems to work well after big sell offs, thoughts?
will be watching LL very closely for good entry point for short cover rally just in case the company is in the right and not the wrong.
thanks
-neb
