MannKind Corp. (MNKD)

[COO2002COO]

Forget Biased Analysts, Diabetics Love MannKind's Afrezza

Summary

-The days of unbridled FUD are over.
-Investors can now focus on ACTUAL diabetics usage of Afrezza.
-Fact: diabetics are loving Afrezza.
-The number of negative articles will increase as reality envelopes shorts.
-The future could not be brighter for MNKD.
-The MannKind (ticker "MNKD") story/plot continues to thicken

Over the past several years, investors, both long and short, have had to rely on trial data, and the opinions of analysts to guide their investment decisions. This led to a messy set of views and considerable swings in the stock price. Those days are now over.

The reason is simple, diabetics now have access to Afrezza, and thus, we can get the information directly from the "horses mouth." And what we are witnessing, is that diabetics are absolutely loving Afrezza. This isn't one analysts opinion, but fact, and the results diabetics are enjoying are far superior to what was observed in the clinical trials.

The number of investors that are on the short side of MannKind, those who believe the company is worth less than the current price, are now beginning to realize they are wrong. However, in order to exit the position in an orderly manner, they need to push the stock price down. This is why we will see additional negative articles in the short-term. If it wasn't for these articles and targeted analyst reports, the price would quickly rise, hurting the $500M position that has been wrongly wagered, in the hopes of poor results by Afrezza.

Historically, investors in biotech companies have had to endure dramatic swings in the stock price. The reasons are straight-forward: biotechnology is a complex field, results are generally binary, and because novel drugs carry significant uncertainty, volatility ensues.

However, at some point, the proverbial "rubber hits the road", and the success/failure, is no longer determined by clinical trials, and biased opinions, but by actual patients, and their experience/results on the given drug. This is precisely where we are today.

Al Mann, Chairman of MannKind, has been claiming for years, that Afrezza is vastly superior to current insulin therapy. He knew it wasn't able to be properly conveyed in the clinical trials due to the inherently restrictive protocols, but as soon as diabetics began using Afrezza, it would bare out. Every benefit Al Mann touted over current insulin is being enjoyed by those early adopters using Afrezza today.

Word is spreading about Afrezza due to the positive experience that diabetics are enjoying. No marketing has been done by MannKind or Sanofi. Zero. And yet, they are running low on sample kits, and already planning on expanding their manufacturing capacity. This is not wishful thinking on the part of Sanofi, they are seeing the results.

Actual prescription numbers do not signify what analysts want you to believe currently. In fact, it's the polar opposite. The prescription figures being touted as underwhelming is actually very encouraging. Since there is zero marketing ongoing, diabetics are learning of Afrezza solely from other diabetics, currently utilizing Afrezza, and word is spreading fast.

It's only been officially available for 25 days and yet, celebrities are making their own online videos extolling the positive benefits of Afrezza; and not because someone is paying them too, but because they are diabetic, understand all the difficulties that other diabetics are going through, and are genuinely excited for the future of diabetes care, all thanks to Afrezza.

Now, with modern online/social media, we have the ability to track, in virtually real time, how diabetics experience Afrezza, compared to other insulin therapies they historically utilized. The results, which anyone can follow, have been nothing short of spectacular. Diabetics, especially T1's, have been glowing about the results they are enjoying. The results are so superior, that diabetics themselves (the ones not yet on Afrezza) are in disbelief, as many have their HbA1c's (a closely followed measure) at levels never before enjoyed. Some such as Sam Finta (as well as numerous others now posting their results on Twitter), have the levels to a point where it's nearly the same as non-diabetics. This is impossible on any other insulin therapy. But that doesn't stop people from making false claims….

For years, some reporters and analysts have been very negative on MannKind, telling everyone the sky is falling. Before, few could tell if they are right or wrong. Now, we have proof. The sky is clearing, and a ray of light has broken through the clouds. They continue to push the same story, but people no longer believe. And rightly so, they have access to the same information, directly from diabetics, and they understand what Afrezza is now truly capable of.

Over the next few days, you will see a considerable increase in the volume of shares trading. Coupled with negative stories, shorts will try to push the stock price down so they can cover (shorts must buy shares to close their position). It may work, but I believe that people have already figured out that they have the story all wrong, and shares will be appreciably higher in the near term.

Everyone has an agenda, but there is one major exception: diabetics, whose lives are literally on the line every day and every time the use insulin. They are seeing real, significant improvement in their lives as a result of Afrezza. Why would you ignore their overwhelmingly positive experience, and believe some analyst telling you they won't like it?

Analysts and reporters have absolutely zero bearing on how Afrezza will do. It is only what diabetics think and experience that will determine the fate of Afrezza. As such, we continue to believe that Afrezza will be the best selling drug in history. As always, do your own research and analysis.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2968416-forget-biased-analysts-diabetics-love-mannkinds-afrezza