Honestly I don't think anyone can call it right now. There are just so many variables in play on top of the investigation. Of course, a positive outcome of the investigation, released sooner than later, could have a very positive impact. It could bring enough of a move up to allow a capital raise, which pretty much everyone admits has to happen, just to see the way past the first well. A negative outcome could be a death knell.
Then there's the price of crude. You only have to look to the likes of AOI to see the impact that's had on a company with a string of successful wells. Of course, they are also closely linked to Tullow. Together they've significantly curtailed their drilling plans for the foreseeable future. For that matter, the precipitous drop of TPN in the midst of drilling their first well in Kenya goes to show just how much the landscape has changed. Keep in mind too that both of those are land-based operations, with considerably cheaper exploration and development costs.
The tide could shift for HDY. Should the investigation wrap up soon, followed by a strong surge in oil prices would again bring about a dramatic shift in the playing field.
I've been on the sidelines for a while now with HDY. If I detect enough change I'll move back in. For me, that's going to have to include more than just an opaque reference in the latest Tullow news. When you factor in their clear indications regarding developing the Ghana and Kenya operations, I don't see how it leaves anything for Guinea in 2015. Regardless, I don't see Tullow or Dana spending anything until they know the impact of any investigation on their portions of the leasehold. They just aren't going to throw money into a well when the possibility exists that it could all be yanked.
