NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[leifsmith]

Comment from Dr. S. re: herd immunity

Zinc finger makes an interesting point about herd immunity. There is a section on herd immunity from Wikipedia that I think is worthwhile repeating here

The standard mathematical definition of herd immunity applies only to "well-mixed populations," in which each infected individual is capable of transmitting the disease to any susceptible individual, regardless of social ties or location. More specifically, the relationship between the basic reproduction number R0 and the herd immunity threshold relies on a calculation that is valid only in well-mixed populations. Actual large populations, however, are better described as social networks, in which transmission can occur only between peers and neighbors. The shape of a social network can alter the level of vaccination required for herd immunity, as well as the likelihood that a population will achieve herd immunity.[12][13] While social networks have a lower herd immunity threshold, in humans, the perception of this lower threshold can adversely affect voluntary inoculation rates, potentially making herd immunity more fragile.[14]

So in reality, in the end, it’s all about human behavior and that hasn’t changed with regard to vaccination for flu in the 50+ years that the CDC has been campaigning for people to get their flu shot!

ZF’s example of an vaccine effectiveness of 80% that he suggests could lead to a 99% reduction in demand is totally theoretical and doesn’t take into account a number of important factors….that is, the effectiveness level of the flu vaccine this year was a mere 23% and less than 50% of those susceptible actually took the vaccine. In addition, there is a very large population of people who CAN’T take the vaccine for medical reasons. Forgetting all those numbers, all we have to do is to look at the numbers from the field. Anywhere from 200,000 to 500,000 people are hospitalized with the flu in the US every year (depending on the strain of the influenza virus). On average, over 40,000 Americans died annually from the flu between 1980 and 2000. It’s estimated that between 5% and 20% (15M-60M) Americans contract the flu yearly.

So there remains a need in both the US and EU for an effective oral drug as well as an IV drug for hospitalized patients with complicated influenza

I certainly hope that someone comes up with a universal vaccine that’s quite effective. Just like the HIV vaccine that’s been talked about for almost 30 years, nothing has happened. Same for the “universal” flu vaccine.

Sincerely,

Eugene Seymour MD MPH
Chief Executive Officer
NanoViricides, Inc
[e-mail]
www.nanoviricides.com
310-486-5677
"NNVC" on the New York Stock Exchange