Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[eastcoastguy]

Hypi, I'm with you on the Patriots! and also the general markets.

SP 500 broke the 100 DMA and is looking shaky to hold the 200 DMA at around 1975. Since QE3 ended at the end of October the volatility has increased dramatically. Look at the wild swings throughout January. In general down days have greater volume than up days.

I'm holding a lot of PPHM but also have options on SDS which is an inverse ETF to the SP500. It's like paying an insurance premium. Today I lost money on both my biotechs but the options on SDS were up.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a sharp market sell off. Treasuries are signaling a "flight to safety" trade. Global currency volatility will lead to problems with equities.

PPHM remains a story stock and will live or die with the Sunrise clinical trials. Until that reads out the best we can hope for is a regional deal/collaboration in another indication to push the stock. We have a lot of outstanding stock for a small cap so the needle doesn't move as quickly. WS wants earnings and commercial products. The only earnings we have are AVID. The expansion signals that management is confident in BAVI approval.

Not surprised there is no insider buying. If in fact they are collaborating or potentially negotiating deals then they can't front run with stock purchases. Good to see Blackrock with a good chunk of PPHM. Don't like seeing the preferred selling cheap. It might be a risk off trade by those getting out. I'm sure we'll find out soon.

Moving forward I am keeping some powder dry for a market sell off. Also considering converting my SEP to a ROTH and if PPHM drops between now and the read out of Sunrise it would save me some conversion taxes.

It's liable to get rocky with both PPHM and the general markets so buckle up and have a plan. Sometimes the plan is to do nothing.

Go Pats!
eastcoastguy