Tuesday, January 27, 2015 1:41:34 AM
Stark figures but no surprises in updated climate change predictions from CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology
Anna Vidot, Tuesday January 27, 2015 - 16:05 EDT
Paddocks in drought near Dubbo, NSW. The CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology's updated climate change projections
point to warmer and drier average conditions across southern Australian agricultural regions into the future. - ABC
INSERT: Dubbo Ap Rainfall Reports
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=65070&list=rb
The CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology say updated climate change predictions confirm what they've been saying for years.
The agencies' show Australia is on track for increasingly extreme weather as the climate is affected by greenhouse gas emissions.
Researchers say climate science and modelling has become more sophisticated and detailed since the agencies released their last joint climate change projection study in 2007.
Senior CSIRO research scientist Kevin Hennessy said the data brought together for the 2015 update provided no surprises.
"These new projections are consistent with what we said back in 2007," he said.
"One of the key findings is that a warmer climate there'll be more extremely high temperatures and fewer colder temperatures.
That warming is expected to be more pronounced in inland areas, which miss out on the buffer provided by the oceans.
Mr Hennessy said Dubbo, in central west New South Wales, currently records about 22 days above 35 [ 95F ] degrees each year.
"By the year 2030 that could increase to between 26 and 37. If we go out to the end of the century, that could be around 49 to 85 days per year if we follow high emissions," he said.
The report also confirms earlier projections that rainfall over southern Australia, with the exception of Tasmania, will decrease.
Mr Hennessy said the amount of evidence pointing to decreasing rainfall from Perth to southern NSW was 'very clear'.
"In south-west Western Australia, where there's already been a warming and a drying, more of that is likely to occur in the future, particularly in winter and spring, where we can see projected [rainfall] decreases by the end of the century of up to 45 per cent of all," he said.
But both the 'direction and magnitude of change' to rainfall patterns across the Top End remained unclear.
"Some models suggest an increase in rainfall, some models suggest a decrease," Mr Hennessy said.
"We have low confidence in northern Australian rainfall change, because some of the models still grapple with some of the important rainfall-forming processes."
That included uncertainty around the impact of tropical cyclone activity on northern rainfall.
The CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology report found that the number of tropical cyclones was set to decrease, but cyclones that did form were likely to be more intense.
Meanwhile, the CSIRO's Dr Wenju Cai published research in the journal Nature Climate Change this week, showing climate models indicated an increase in the frequency of extreme La Nina events.
He earlier published research pointing to an increase in extreme El Nino events.
La Nina typically brings cooler and wetter conditions to eastern Australia, including flooding. El Nino typically results in hotter and drier conditions in the east, including drought.
Mr Hennessy said the interaction between changes in average climate, and increasing frequency of extreme events, showed Australia needs to work out how it is going to prepare for and manage its climate into the future.
"These new projections provide an evidence base for an assessment of potential impacts and what we need to do to reduce emissions, so we can slow global warming, and, secondly, adapt and try to manage these changes as they occur," he said.
"One of the clear messages from this report is, in addition to warmer conditions with some drying in southern Australia, there's also going to be an increase in extreme daily rainfall intensity.
"That, combined with increased evaporation, provides all sorts of different implications for agriculture.
"You might consider new crop varieties, more efficient irrigation, more flexible farm management and different types of food storage and preservation, early warning systems, so farmers can prepare well in advance, and better emergency response and recovery so we can deal with these events as they occur."
Mr Hennessy said the data suggested that at least a 2-degree increase in global average temperatures was unavoidable at this point, and farmers and water managers would have to adapt accordingly.
"Beyond that, what we do to reduce emissions in the next couple of decades really matters," he said.
"If we can change to a path that is relatively low emissions, we will avoid some of the worst impacts.
"If on the other hand we don't do much to reduce emissions, we're looking at a warming of up to 5 degrees in Australia, with significant implications."
- ABC
© ABC 2015
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/stark-figures-but-no-surprises-in-updated-climate-change-predictions-from-csiro-bureau-of-meteorology/231223
===
Dubbo area - see photo above
More money for emergency water for New South Wales farmers now includes de-silting dams
Sally Bryant, Monday January 12, 2015 - 14:12 EDT
The NSW Government has announced an additional $20 million of Emergency Water
Infrastructure Rebates for farmers in a 1 in 50 year drought, including funds to desilt dams. - ABC
Drought-affected farmers are now eligible for a government rebate, to remove silt from dry dams, as well as other emergency water infrastructure works.
The New South Wales Government has announced an additional $20 million under the Emergency Water Infrastructure Rebate scheme for drought-affected landholders to provide farm water if they are in a one in 50 year drought.
Member for Dubbo, Leader of the NSW Nationals and acting Premier Troy Grant, has inspected the situation on-ground at Walgett in the north west, he says the situation in that part of the state is critical.
Mr Grant said the last round of Emergency Water Infrastructure Rebate funding was fully subscribed, and is confident this new funding will be welcomed by farmers.
"Farmers can start the application process for this process straight away," he said.
"To be eligible, they must be in a one in 50 year drought.
"The funds are a rebate to be paid on a dollar for dollar basis for emergency water infrastructure, and for the first time they include de-silting dry dams."
Mr Grant said the other key change to the funding is that farmers will be assessed on an individual or farm basis rather than on an Local Government Area eligibility.
He says the rebate scheme will close on June 30th.
- ABC
© ABC 2015
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/more-money-for-emergency-water-for-new-south-wales-farmers-now-includes-de-silting-dams/222311
---
https://www.google.com/search?q=distance+sydney+to+dubbo+&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8
Anna Vidot, Tuesday January 27, 2015 - 16:05 EDT
Paddocks in drought near Dubbo, NSW. The CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology's updated climate change projections
point to warmer and drier average conditions across southern Australian agricultural regions into the future. - ABC
INSERT: Dubbo Ap Rainfall Reports
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/station.jsp?lt=site&lc=65070&list=rb
The CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology say updated climate change predictions confirm what they've been saying for years.
The agencies' show Australia is on track for increasingly extreme weather as the climate is affected by greenhouse gas emissions.
Researchers say climate science and modelling has become more sophisticated and detailed since the agencies released their last joint climate change projection study in 2007.
Senior CSIRO research scientist Kevin Hennessy said the data brought together for the 2015 update provided no surprises.
"These new projections are consistent with what we said back in 2007," he said.
"One of the key findings is that a warmer climate there'll be more extremely high temperatures and fewer colder temperatures.
That warming is expected to be more pronounced in inland areas, which miss out on the buffer provided by the oceans.
Mr Hennessy said Dubbo, in central west New South Wales, currently records about 22 days above 35 [ 95F ] degrees each year.
"By the year 2030 that could increase to between 26 and 37. If we go out to the end of the century, that could be around 49 to 85 days per year if we follow high emissions," he said.
The report also confirms earlier projections that rainfall over southern Australia, with the exception of Tasmania, will decrease.
Mr Hennessy said the amount of evidence pointing to decreasing rainfall from Perth to southern NSW was 'very clear'.
"In south-west Western Australia, where there's already been a warming and a drying, more of that is likely to occur in the future, particularly in winter and spring, where we can see projected [rainfall] decreases by the end of the century of up to 45 per cent of all," he said.
But both the 'direction and magnitude of change' to rainfall patterns across the Top End remained unclear.
"Some models suggest an increase in rainfall, some models suggest a decrease," Mr Hennessy said.
"We have low confidence in northern Australian rainfall change, because some of the models still grapple with some of the important rainfall-forming processes."
That included uncertainty around the impact of tropical cyclone activity on northern rainfall.
The CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology report found that the number of tropical cyclones was set to decrease, but cyclones that did form were likely to be more intense.
Meanwhile, the CSIRO's Dr Wenju Cai published research in the journal Nature Climate Change this week, showing climate models indicated an increase in the frequency of extreme La Nina events.
He earlier published research pointing to an increase in extreme El Nino events.
La Nina typically brings cooler and wetter conditions to eastern Australia, including flooding. El Nino typically results in hotter and drier conditions in the east, including drought.
Mr Hennessy said the interaction between changes in average climate, and increasing frequency of extreme events, showed Australia needs to work out how it is going to prepare for and manage its climate into the future.
"These new projections provide an evidence base for an assessment of potential impacts and what we need to do to reduce emissions, so we can slow global warming, and, secondly, adapt and try to manage these changes as they occur," he said.
"One of the clear messages from this report is, in addition to warmer conditions with some drying in southern Australia, there's also going to be an increase in extreme daily rainfall intensity.
"That, combined with increased evaporation, provides all sorts of different implications for agriculture.
"You might consider new crop varieties, more efficient irrigation, more flexible farm management and different types of food storage and preservation, early warning systems, so farmers can prepare well in advance, and better emergency response and recovery so we can deal with these events as they occur."
Mr Hennessy said the data suggested that at least a 2-degree increase in global average temperatures was unavoidable at this point, and farmers and water managers would have to adapt accordingly.
"Beyond that, what we do to reduce emissions in the next couple of decades really matters," he said.
"If we can change to a path that is relatively low emissions, we will avoid some of the worst impacts.
"If on the other hand we don't do much to reduce emissions, we're looking at a warming of up to 5 degrees in Australia, with significant implications."
- ABC
© ABC 2015
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/stark-figures-but-no-surprises-in-updated-climate-change-predictions-from-csiro-bureau-of-meteorology/231223
===
Dubbo area - see photo above
More money for emergency water for New South Wales farmers now includes de-silting dams
Sally Bryant, Monday January 12, 2015 - 14:12 EDT
The NSW Government has announced an additional $20 million of Emergency Water
Infrastructure Rebates for farmers in a 1 in 50 year drought, including funds to desilt dams. - ABC
Drought-affected farmers are now eligible for a government rebate, to remove silt from dry dams, as well as other emergency water infrastructure works.
The New South Wales Government has announced an additional $20 million under the Emergency Water Infrastructure Rebate scheme for drought-affected landholders to provide farm water if they are in a one in 50 year drought.
Member for Dubbo, Leader of the NSW Nationals and acting Premier Troy Grant, has inspected the situation on-ground at Walgett in the north west, he says the situation in that part of the state is critical.
Mr Grant said the last round of Emergency Water Infrastructure Rebate funding was fully subscribed, and is confident this new funding will be welcomed by farmers.
"Farmers can start the application process for this process straight away," he said.
"To be eligible, they must be in a one in 50 year drought.
"The funds are a rebate to be paid on a dollar for dollar basis for emergency water infrastructure, and for the first time they include de-silting dry dams."
Mr Grant said the other key change to the funding is that farmers will be assessed on an individual or farm basis rather than on an Local Government Area eligibility.
He says the rebate scheme will close on June 30th.
- ABC
© ABC 2015
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/more-money-for-emergency-water-for-new-south-wales-farmers-now-includes-de-silting-dams/222311
---
https://www.google.com/search?q=distance+sydney+to+dubbo+&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8
It was Plato who said, “He, O men, is the wisest, who like Socrates, knows that his wisdom is in truth worth nothing”
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