Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Protector]

Thomas, you can do all the speaking you want here on the board, so everyone can enjoy.

As far as I am concerned (I don't speak for the others) there isn't anything I can tell you in private that I can not tell you here for all to share. And if I can't share it here on IHub then I'd probably won't tell in private either.

Furthermore I've seen attempts in the past to approach shareholders under false pretences (not saying this is what you are doing) as part of a mapping attempt to find out where large lots of PPHM shares are and how they could be influenced.

So I don't do the have a drink, have lunch, the Boston and L.A. area invitations, the "I'll send you a gift", etc.

If you are very young pls REMEMBER this is a SMALL CAP BIOTECH STOCK. While highly profitable drugs such as bavituximab may come out of PPHM's pipelines it REMAINS TILL THEN a HIGH RISK vs REWARD instrument. So I'd advise you to be careful when you invest and NOT use money that you have scheduled for something else already and will need on a specific moment in time (eg: scholarship) because one of the things that you FOR CERTAIN will NOT control with this PPHM stock is timing of when things will happen. There are long-long investors here for more then 10 years and who can only now see the light at the end of the tunnel.

We are not dealing with a stock where BoD/Management is evaluated based on quarterly coupons payout, on production and market share increase, on production efficiency and margins, etc, because there is no product approved yet. And BoD/management is not in a stress position due to their jobs being at risk. They have many (cheap) options and stock, as do the employees, consultants and some scientist at the Universities with which PPHM works so they ALL have the same interest as we do: PPS up. Then of course PPS up to LAST and not a peak. For that to happen see below.

Management, through its CEO SK, has made a clear statement in the past that they'll run the company for the long term best of the company (and hence the shareholders) and not for the short term stockholders personal needs and agenda's. I am all for that.

3 MAJOR steps still need to take place

1) RECONFIRMATION of Bavituximab
I don't know since when exactly you read this board but I am sure your D&D must have surfaced the Sept 2012 7th, 21th and 24th events. While many investors here on this board thanks to a salvage operation, testimonies for a Law Suit and statements of PPHM know today that everything is fine with Bavituximab, even better then on Sept 7th, the market doesn't know!
The stock got a SHOCK, in Wall ST people LOST money on this one, and PPHM IR department NEVER rectified or put in perspective the results from Sept 7th when they did the investigation wrap-up PR. They told us what happened but did never comment on what that meant for there advise not to rely on the Sept 7th results. Hence for the market it is still: Don't rely on them! Only Doctor Brekken at NYAS has made the correction in a Q&A and confirmed the results were BETTER, but that has never been PR'ed officially.

So officially the market is still in: Do not rely on these results (the once from Chicago Sept 7th) to INVEST in PPHM. This statement has NEVER been corrected and for a certain reason cannot and probably will not be corrected officially until late this summer or maybe not at all if we have early, and more recent, bavituximab info from SUNRISE. And so the market CANNOT move because EVERY person that would advice one of his clients to invest in PPHM and it would get wrong could be confronted with the fact that PPHM TOLD THEM NOT TO RELY on the results and hence been considered to ill advice his customer. The same goes for II/fund managers that when an investment goes wrong may be called to comment why they invested against the companies own advice! IR is the weak point of PPHM because it may lack insight in how the markets work and think. For a NASDAQ listed company that may be a problem.

So with the Bavituximab SUNRISE CT this DOUBT in the market must be restored.

2) Get rid of the trials
PPHM is involved in TWO court trials. One that they (PPHM) started against CSM (the 3rd party CRO in Fargo, ND where our 2nd ln NSCLC clinical trial was sabotaged). 25% of the control arm patients received Bavituximab instead of placebo (increasing the control arm MOS) and 25% of the patients in the bavituximab arm 1mg/Kg receive placebo instead of bavituximab (decrease the Bavi arms MOS). One can see how this worked AGAINST Bavituximab because the difference between BOTH MOS results indicates how well Bavituximab increased performance of SOC (Standard of Care) alone. The current 60% (official) was about 130% on Sept 7th 2012 and will in reality probably have been even better give that we know know that Bavituximab achieved the 130% while being sabotaged for 25% of its dosage.

I talk in PATIENTS but I am still busy finding out if dosing means 1-to-1 patients or if the 25% was in both arms spread over all patients in that arm. It could be that last one and hence combining both arms (Ctrl+Bavi 1mg/kg) to move to the FDA's EOPII meeting would indeed have been the conservative, but also smart thing to do.

The second trial is an appeal. PPHM won 3 times in a row the preliminaries in which some parties wanted the Judges permission to start a Class Action. We erroneously call this the Class Action but there never was one, the Judge never gave permission to start it.

The other party now went in appeal to a higher court and file 300+ pages of nonsense. This is no surprise because it was clear from plaintiffs preveous filings that they mistook on this one and that later someone hi-jacked the procedure to annoy PPHM and probably either keep the Class Action risk alive and on the agenda to hinder the company or otherwise lingers in order to see if PPHM would be prepared to pay to get rid of this nuisance. This last thing is not going to happen. Someone was asked to ask that question after the Q&A at the ASM and it is clear that the state of mind is: No Chance!

BTW this class action permission hearing are about PRESUMED SEC violations. Plaintiff CLAIMED that SK, Garnick, Shan and Lytle on Sept 7th allowed results to be made public by PR and at a Conference and that AT THAT TIME the knew already that sabotage/tempering occurred and they should have stopped that communication. Hence that they could take advantage from the fact that the PPS would go up by the results announcements (which it did to 5.40$) and that they knew they would at some point have to announce the dose switching which resulted in a drop back to 0.60$. The CA is about the 4 mentioned people being in a position where they could have known about the announcement and its content and should have stopped the announcement of the 7th but did not because they wanted to take TRADING advantage (acting on insiders information and even forcing the events which are both SEC offences) of the knowledge.

The trial against CSM is a Jury trial and will normally be over this summer. The CA permission request appeal goes nowhere but it will be there as long as they can keep it there. The next leg of that should also be done and over with this summer but I am not sure if there are still other means to kick this back on the agenda.

3) A first partnership.
It is very uniquely that PPHM will be fully acquired the coming months and even the coming 2 years. There has been lots of talks about 24+ collaborations, partnership talks that took place (eg: AbbVie was mention in the court filings), about possible Buy-outs of a pipeline or part thereof (e.g. Bavituximab Oncology - not including beta Bodies), of partnerships for a region or certain condition and of going it alone.

The market at this point has no clue where PPHM is going with this, what path it will chose. You can understand that the chosen strategy will have a HUGE impact on your investment. Every path will as well impact the time, the value of the share and the slope at which they appreciate. Going it alone will no doubt give the highest return but will take longer. Good and multiple partnerships may be a good option with excellent return and will speed things up.And acquisition is always equal to loosing part of the return (because otherwise there would be no acquisition) but it can happen fast. And "less" is a relative statement. The cash is available and can be reinvested. A share-deal can be part of the package and one needs not to become de-invested in bavituximab.

The market will react ones a FIRST fact that clearly shows where PPHM is going with this occurs. For instance a regional partnership for Liver in Asia with Bayer would clearly make a full-all oncology conditions Bavituximab impossible (unless the Bayer contract can be transfered with it) and would indicate that there is a good change that PPHM will start up multiple of these partnerships.

PPHM selling Bavituximab (after SUNRISE approval) directly on the US market would, when the revenue is good, be an indication that PPHM will, possibly partially, go it alone.

I am ALL FOR a combination of the above strategies to build up value in the company. Cash & Well Oiled Operation. No matter what the PPS does in the mean time (it probably may still be kept under the lid) value in the company and Bavi's potential will be what will mark the price when a possible single step or dual step acquisition would follow. Not the PPS.

Also, ones it is clear PPHM makes quarterly profits the lid comes off the PPS automatically.


So those 3 events are the ones to watch. All others that happen in between and that do not at least have a same impact will very probably do nothing. In a few weeks we get our BetaBody patent and while it is a KEY patent in the portfolio to further control the PS-targeting realm I fear that the market will not realize that (YET). PS Targeting will only be put on the forefront of many agenda's the coming 12-18 months, probably culminating with some SUNRISE announcement and it is then that the real dancing starts. While 2015 may be event-full and PPS moves may start direction 5$, the fireworks will probably be for 2016.


Good Luck with Your investment in PPHM.