Sunday, January 18, 2015 12:12:00 PM
I used $100 million as the least I would expect WDDD to win in a trial, and to show what the effects would be on stock prices for each company. ATVI would be effected less than the normal trading noise or price changes that happen each day; while the effect on WDDD stock prices would be large, and show a good profit for even people who bought WDDD stock at the high of $0.59 (as I recall) within the last few years.
I expect if the WDDD vs ATIV goes to trial, that the royalty percent would be around 3%, from the time of the certificate of correction was issued, resulting in a award of at least around $300 million. Damages may attach depending how bad ATVI looks to the judge/jury, which I would expect since WDDD tried for years to license the patent and ATVI refused. It would be kind of hard for ATVI to argue that they did not willfully violate the patents when WDDD wanted ATVI to license them.
I am still baffled as to why ATVI did not just buy up a majority of the WDDD stock when it traded for less than $0.10/share in the time leading up to the lawsuit being filed since that would probably cost only a little more than what they may end up spending on legal fees.
What happens next depends on when the Markman issues and how the public reacts to it. I expect a favorable Markman result.
Even at this late date, I think ATVI would be better off buying up all the WDDD they can on the open market. With the current market cap it would 'cap' any possible losses and stop the problem. By allowing this to continue they run the risk of losing many multiples of the current market price. ATVI could even use the WDDD patents to go after the purchase price from other infringers and turn a profit on buying WDDD.
Louis.
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