I think the guidance they give is interesting and gives us a unique insight that we didn't have before.
Generally speaking, when a range is given, such as with guidance, the target number is the midpoint of that range with the per cent variation between the midpoint and the upper and lower limits being a measure of the expected volatility. The volatility being a combination of market conditions and timing of the prediction relative to the time period covered. In simpler terms the range should be smaller when given near the end of the Q (like at the end of the year) and the range should be greater with a few large deals than with a lot of small deals.
So far (only through 3 Q's) the actual results have averaged about 84% of the midpoint, which gives us an expected 4th Q revenue of about $1.134M based on the past 3 Q's.
If the guidance is presumed to be calculated accurately, even though no one actual result may ever match the midpoint, after enough trials, the divergence should go to zero. For this to happen in Q4, the revenue would need to be $1.945M.
I think the only reason that they affirmed Q3 guidance was to stabilize the pps after missing so badly in Q2. I just don't see them getting in the habit of affirming their numbers. I would expect them to only announce a blowout (maybe twice the high limit number) and to never announce if below the low limit number.
Since they will surely announce the election results and maybe issue a year end letter along with it, we may see an affirmation at that time
