Wednesday, January 14, 2015 11:22:36 AM
Nomura Securities is already calling the bottom and “the birth of a new oil bull market.” The bank forecasts that Brent crude will bottom at an average of $45 in Q1, recover to $55 in Q2, and go back to the long-term average of $80 by the end of this year.
The oil market is in real trouble if the bear is driven by weak demand, but fortunately, this one is just a temporary price war started by Saudi Arabia.
The force is still strong. “It is not demand weakness that triggered the oil price collapse. Global oil consumption is at a record high and there is only about 3% of spare global capacity as the era of easy oil is long gone,” according to analysts Gordon Kwan and Bob Chen. The recent oil price collapse was “deliberately triggered by Saudi Arabia” to slow down development in U.S. shale oil, Canadian oil sands and deep-water and Arctic drilling.
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