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Re: bbotcs post# 31584

Friday, 12/19/2014 1:35:52 PM

Friday, December 19, 2014 1:35:52 PM

Post# of 35717
Bbotcs..

...to clarify...these are probably the best risk-reward tax-selling trades in the junior mining category. Here are the risks as I see them:

TMM.TO - single operating mine and LOM grade dropping to .5-.5 g/t in 2015 but at higher throughput rates. See the recent PR where they acquired Caballo Blanco from Goldgroup - though I understand there are major permitting issues here. Will be another Mexican heap-leach if they can get it permitted though.

AR.TO - they have two smaller heap leach mines but biggest risk is near term dilution for building out next mine in 2015 - this is probably what sell off is about. You can see the fall in the cash balance from Dec 13 to Sept 14 in Q3 FS. Still cheap though and you get development projects for free at current ~117M value to acquirer (EV less WC)

SLL.TO - should be go to name on sector rally but risk is with potential shut down of Luna Gold which is Sandstorm's flagship stream but as I said Luna Gold is for sale.

DPM.TO - 2014 was year of big capital spend and main risk here is that their Namibia smelter has issues causing an unexpected capex requirement. They have two mines and are pretty much the lowest AISC in the sector (for a Junior, Intermediate or Senior - there are mines (i.e. Red Lake Goldcorp) with lower AISC but none with lower corporate AISC)

EDV.TO - they aren't exactly generating tons of cash but only have 5M of debt on their BS so I would imagine there is some borrowing room if they would have to finance a major capital spend in 2015.

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