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MORGAN STANLEY'S PREDICTION $43 BARREL

Can Crude Fall To $43 Per Barrel In 2015?
Dec. 10, 2014 2:58 AM ET | Includes: BNO, COG, CRUD, DBO, DNO, DTO, DWTI, ECA, OIL, OLEM, OLO, SCO, SZO, UCO, USL, USO, UWTI, VDE

Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Summary

Morgan Stanley has foretasted that oil can fall to $43 per barrel (worst case scenario) in 2015.
A deep recession in Euro-zone and a strong dollar can be the biggest factors leading to $43 per barrel oil in 2015.
OPEC expects oil prices to remain around $60 levels in the foreseeable future.
China's economic slowdown is not a concern from oil demand perspective as the country is increasing oil imports as strategic reserves.
My recommendation is gradual accumulation of quality stocks in the oil & gas sector.

The decline in crude oil prices remains unabated as the fear of supply glut increases into 2015. I must admit that I expected oil to remain above $70 per barrel. The key rationale was a production cut from OPEC and Russia in 2015. With no decision on production cuts, the outlook for oil prices remains uncertain. I will discuss the factors that contribute to the uncertainty later in the article.

Amidst the bearish sentiments, the oil price forecast for 2015 by Morgan Stanley offers more gloomy prospects. According to Morgan Stanley -

Without OPEC intervention, markets risk becoming unbalanced, with peak oversupply likely in the second quarter of 2015. Prices are set up to fall in the first half of 2015...crude prices could average as little as $53 per barrel in 2015, although its base case scenario was for $70... In the worst case scenario, oil could fall as low as $43 in the second quarter of next year, recovering to only $48 in the third quarter...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2744635-can-crude-fall-to-43-per-barrel-in-2015