Even the playback today was a little garbled but a few things that were key to me;
1) The decision to NOT co-develop 2nd gen drug program was due to the desire to develop their own proprietary assets.
This is what I had felt at the time of the announcement, but at the time of the announcement Mr Market did not seem to like the decision.
It also struck me that there were so many trials on sub-groups in the 3-D program, it could really bleed out your liquidity in a hurry.
2) The size of the HCV market;
"We believe this market is large and that worldwide sales of HCV therapies could increase to $15 billion to $20 billion in the next few years"
Even at 20% market share, this is sizable.
This could turn out to be a banner several years for Abbvie/Enta; beyond expectations.
3) From what I continue to hear and read the 2nd generation program is doing well, and is on schedule. We may see by EASL just how competitive this may be, and in multiple genotypes.
4) The (projected) 4th wave of ENTA income in HCV seems to be in the re-aquired NS5A from Novartis. It looks to me as though they are planning on developing this. It will be interesting to see how it stacks up against others in it's class.
5) Last sentence before Q and A;
" We expect to select a candidate from one or more of our proprietary HCV programs and identify a new development candidate in an area beyond HCV."
I'm inferring that one is the NS5A and I hope the other is the nuke, but since Luly twice mentioned the breadth of the HCV program it may mean 2 HCV compounds, not just one.
Were that to be the case, by the time there are trial results from the 2nd generation (493 & 530) trials ENTA could be on the way to be developing it's own program, and.... to some extent.... the means of paying for it (3-D program, 2-D program, 2nd gen program)
6) On top of that, it could mean the antibiotic could be going to clinic.
There seem to be a lot of good things coming, and the share price should reflect that soon.
There are a lot of positive share price catalysts before us in the next 3 months.
