$Stock*Shop*Charts*News*Option$

[EZ2]

Relax -- the S&P is only going up 5% next year, plus the bottom for gold

MARKETWATCH 9:09 AM ET 11/24/14

Symbol Last Price Change
PANW 108.93down 0 (0%)
TSL 10.93 0 (0%)
RNA 11.44down 0 (0%)
AAPL 116.47 0 (0%)
SYMC 25.33down 0 (0%)
HEAR 4.16down 0 (0%)
GG 20.52down 0 (0%)
QUOTES AS OF 04:06:05 PM ET 11/21/2014

By Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch Critical intelligence before the U.S. market opens

After a year of investors lying awake imagining all that was going to wrong with this rally -- akin to the nightsweats we parents (or maybe just me) get from the "what-if" scenarios surrounding their offspring -- it seems we can finally relax for 2015. No one thinks it's going to be amazing. Whew.

Strategists expect an average 5% or less gain for the S&P 500 (SPX) next year, versus a nearly 12% gain for 2014, writes WSJ MoneyBeat. That's a contrarian indicator to people like Savita Subramanian at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who's bullish on U.S. stocks, just because everyone else is being evah so careful.

And a year ago, the average strategist was predicting just a 5.8% gain for this year, that WSJ blog points out.

Still fretting? Here's another reason to maybe stop grinding those chompers at night: We have passed the major- correction fork in the road. That proclamation was made by Gerring Capital Management'sEric Parnell, who says if stocks were going to see a pullback after the October bounce, then the "natural timing" would have been the first three weeks in November. He notes that since 1987, stocks have only moved lower in December four separate times, and only two of those are worth even looking at: 1996, with a loss of 2% for that month, and 2006, with a loss of 0.10%.

Parnell said those small dips are really nothing more than consolidation moves -- so if anything, that's what's coming. And given the fact we keep hearing underperforming fund managers are lapping up any alpha they can get, dips would get eaten up faster than you can say tofurkey stuffing.

But, of course, we're getting ahead of ourselves here, because Thanksgiving week is upon us, and according to B. of A., that's been a historically good thing (at least back to 1984). What happens in Thanksgiving week, stays ... well, whatever, but the point is, maybe just don't blow off this week so soon. That's our chart of the day.

Also don't miss our call of the day. Gold -- that loving feeling is back.

Key market gauges

It remains to be seen how much more juice this market's going to get out of that central-bank fix on Friday. Still roughly another two weeks until the next hit -- er, ECB meeting. Futures on the Dow (YMZ4) and the S&P (ESZ4) are just in the green. Asia , meanwhile, took off as markets got the first chance to react to China's rate cuts, with the Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng each popping nearly 2% higher. Europe is rising, though the German DAX has gotten a boost from the Ifo Business Climate index, which is up for the first time since April. Oil prices (CLF5) are up, but don't forget OPEC is meeting Thursday and it could be a doozy. The Monday-night deadline to reach a deal to curb Iran's nuclear activities looks to slide on by, says The Wall Street Journal.

Gold (GCZ4) is also up, and the dollar (USDJPY) is popping above Yen118,

The economy

Markit said Monday that U.S. and global business confidence slumped in the third quarter. The U.S. reading fell to the lowest since the survey started in 2009. Otherwise, the Chicago Fed national activity index is all that's on offer this morning. But the week is front-loaded ahead of the Thanksgiving break, so enjoy the lull.

The quote of the day

"I think the American people, you know, they're going to want -- you know, that new car smell. You know, their own -- they want to drive something off the lot that doesn't have as much mileage as me," President Barack Obama to ABC News Chief anchor George Stephanopoulos.

Earnings

A tiny list: Palo Alto Networks(PANW) , of WireLurker malicious software fame, will report results Monday. Trina Solar(TSL)

The buzz

Deal news has driven up shares of Dutch group Prosensa(RNA) by about 63% this morning, but shares of BioMarin (BMRN) , which has offered to buy it out, are down about 1.6%.

Drone industry, you have been warned. The FAA is about to bust out some more restrictive rules on commercial drones, such as operators need a license and can only fly during daylight hours, under 400 feet and in eyesight of the person at the controls. Smaller drones are getting no breaks either, says The Wall Street Journal.

Tesla (TSLA) says it's in talks with BMW over a battery alliance, according to the German weekly Der Spiegel.

Apple's (AAPL) apps are going RED for two weeks. From Monday to Dec. 7, Apple(AAPL) will donate a portion of its global sales to the anti-AIDS charity in the runup to World AIDS Day on Dec. 1. A section of the company's marketplace called 'Apps for (RED)' will offer 24 titles with exclusive content, and all proceeds will go directly to that charity.

(https://twitter:com/AppStore/status/536704232150544384 .)

The latest malware worry is called Regin, but it's as old as the hills. Well, since 2008 it's been used in "systematic spying campaigns" against government organizations, infrastructure operators, business researchers and individuals, says Symantec(SYMC), who raised the alarm in a blog.

If large caps are putting you to sleep, then check out these small-cap ouptperformers from blogger The Fly. Here's why he's hot on Turtle Beach(HEAR) and DTS .

The chart of the day

Bank of America's MacNeil Curry has charted out how various assets perform during Thanksgiving week (h/t ZeroHedge). He points to recent history that shows the S&P 500 is probably due to break higher, along with Brent crude and gold.

"Historically, many global markets have behaved differently during the week surrounding the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday," Curry noted, saying even 10-year U.S. bonds have done better than average. But then he also says, Thanksgiving has had relatively little effect on dollar/yen.

ZeroHedge suggests tossing the entire chart based on that last point. Because if you're looking for volatility this week, then dollar/yen, which was sailing towards Yen118 (USDJPY) again this morning, could more than deliver. Then again, maybe gold also has a few surprises up its sleeve.

The call of the day

There has been a lot of chatter about gold recently, which isn't a big shock as that Swiss vote looms. Switzerland, you'll recall, will vote Nov. 30 on whether or not to re-peg the Swiss franc to gold instead of to the euro, and whether to repatriate all of its gold held abroad and never sell any again. The vote, which analysts say would require the SNB to buy 1,500 tons of gold, isn't likely to pass. But just the specter of it, plus Russia accumulating gold and disinflation threats have Barrons and others saying the bloodletting on gold may just be over.

Barrons's tech whiz Michael Kahn wrote last week that gold is set to test $1,250 an ounce in the coming weeks, which if successful, would open the door to $1,500. Gold mining stocks have also been moving up in the last couple of weeks -- Canadian giant Goldcorp(GG) is up about 9% as November draws to a close.

Over at Barclays, though, they say a short-covering rally is on the horizon, noting that physical flows to ETFs, for instance, remain negative. "We believe market volatility is likely to rise ahead of the Swiss gold vote and, given elevated short positioning, we would advocate shorting price rallies," said Suki Cooper and the team at Barclays. Commerzbank sees $1,400 on gold by the end of 2016.

Random reads

This 25-year-old California man looks like a fine candidate to deport. Anywhere. Pity Old Blighty won't have him.

Stumped for that holiday gift? Pot sellers are pulling out the stops in their first legal Christmas. Gift cards and even a doobie-infused mini pumpkin pie anyone?

All that snow is melting in Buffalo.

Washington's 'Mayor for Life' Marion Barry is dead at 78.

I don't really like football, but whatever. This amazing catch is for you @slangwise.

(https://twitter:com/nfl/status/536803922393194497 .)

Of all the nerve. Seattle mayor tries to upstage the annual turkey pardon with this:

(https://twitter:com/pshapiro/status/536624307934613504 .)

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but to get it delivered once to your email box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7 a.m. Eastern.

-Barbara Kollmeyer; 415-439-6400; [e-mail]

Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires


(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-24-140909ET
Copyright (c) 2014 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.