Lions Gate Entertainment Corp (LGF.B)

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$150 Million Opening Expected for Latest 'Hunger Games' Movie

Nov 20, 2014 16:35:00 (ET)

By Erich Schwartzel
Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. investors are now looking to Katniss Everdeen to conquer more than Panem when "The Hunger Games: Mockingjay--Part 1" opens with what is expected to be the biggest debut for any movie this year.

The third film adaptation of Suzanne Collins's best-selling novels is on track to gross between $150 million and $160 million in the U.S. and Canada this weekend, with some industry estimates putting the possible gross at $170 million, according to people who have seen pre-release audience surveys.

That would put it on par with or ahead of the opening-weekend grosses of the first two "Hunger Games" films. It would also easily surpass the approximate $100 million that "Transformers: Age of Extinction" earned during its first weekend in June--the biggest opening so far this year.

"The Hunger Games" opened to $152.5 million in 2012 and "The Hunger Games: Catching Fire" had a $158 million debut in 2013. Lions Gate said it expects "Mockingjay--Part 1" to make between $130 million and $150 million this weekend. Studios often lowball such pre-release estimates for their own movies to further burnish strong results and blunt the impact of disappointments.

"The Hunger Games" series tells the story of Katniss Everdeen, a strong-willed heroine who must compete in a televised death match and becomes a national hero in her futuristic dystopia. The two installments of "Mockingjay" were shot concurrently, and, like the first two films, feature Philip Seymour Hoffman in one of his last movie roles since dying of a drug overdose in February.

Lions Gate is one of the few stand-alone publicly traded film studios in Hollywood, and its library of other young-adult franchises like "Twilight" and "Divergent" have helped make it a possible acquisition target for larger players seeking a presence in Hollywood.

Typically, big franchise openings don't move the needle much for Lions Gate stock, but lower-than-expected debuts--even when they top $150 million--can dent the share price. On the Monday after "Catching Fire" opened to slightly less than some analysts were expecting, Lions Gate shares fell by more than 10% on the New York Stock Exchange.

"People get excited about the opening weekend, but the opening weekend doesn't pay the bills," said Eric Wold, a stock analyst at B. Riley & Co. "What the movie does in its entire run pays the bills."

That includes the ever-crucial overseas returns. A significant amount of the franchise's grosses have come from overseas. The international haul was $283 million for the first installment in 2012 and $440 million for "Catching Fire" a year later. The global gross of "Mockingjay--Part 1" won't be known for a while; it isn't being released in China, the world's second-largest film market, until early next year.

"Mockingjay--Part 1" has received the weakest reviews of the series so far, including some outright pans and a few critics saying it feels like a mere warm-up to the franchise finale, set for release in November 2015.

Also affecting the "Mockingjay" landing: a lack of IMAX Corp. screens showing the movie. The large-screen auditoriums are currently committed to the outer-space epic "Interstellar." IMAX's premium ticket price contributed between $4 million and $5 million to the opening-weekend returns of "Catching Fire," said Mr. Wold.

Nevertheless, Katniss and Co. will likely help lift Hollywood's domestic box-office out of its recent malaise. Year-to-date returns available this week were down 3.8% compared with last year, according to box-office tracking service Rentrak Corp. That comparison has improved since the summer ended, though, thanks to major fall releases like "Gone Girl," "Big Hero 6" and "Interstellar."


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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 20, 2014 16:35 ET (21:35 GMT)


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