Thursday, November 20, 2014 12:17:12 PM
One huge unknown is the ultimate denominator if and when sales start to meaningfully accelerate.
In other words, shares outstanding.
I and fman have brought up the general subject of working capital needs multiple times this year. If mills & co can negotiate various supply contracts and or joint venture deals where the other party fronts all, most, or a significant portion of upfront startup costs, then dilution over the next 2-3 years may not be that onerous. But if they can't, the acceleration of dilutive equity financings may end up being typical of small companies at the cusps of their growth phases.
Whatever you model, don't be sucked into the sell side obfuscation ruse of using current shares o/s - aprox 56-57mm - as the denominator 2-3 years out. If things go well, the fully diluted shares - about 62mm I believe - is just a base number.
Know this. Growth isn't free.
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