Challenger, from my knowledge of SAGD, the first cut is usually 80 per cent or more water, and they would be lucky to produce more than 50 barrels a day for the first month.
By the end of month two, where we are now, "stable" bitumen production rates would be in the order of 80-100 barrels a day.
As the steam chamber grows, production starts climbing, with peak production coming about a year after first steaming, and staying there for many many years.
I am quite sure their numbers are in the 90-100 barrel a day range or maybe even slightly below, which could be why they don't want to announce it right now. For anyone who doesn't understand how SAG-D builds production with a year's head of steam, today's production figures can make the project look like a "failure." So the caution about the numbers makes sense, because they need to be understood in context.
anything more than 100 barrels a day right now would be GREAT news. I'm guessing they're not quite there yet, which is why they're going into the "period of evaluation."
If they hit the 200-barrel-a-day mark at the end of month five, they will be well on schedule and well on their way to demonstrated economic viability.
Good to see Colin Outtrim on the DWOG board, that is a huge vote of confidence.
