Saturday, November 15, 2014 7:40:49 PM
John, you have various targets in mind, but one variant of Hurst's method using halfwave change in direction was added to the chart since the first post.
Since price has a lot of noise, I find it useful to use an estimate of price constructed using a CMA such as CMA13 and adding to that value the normal amplitude (appropriate side)to get a normalized price. The point where the CMA183 turns positive is marked, and the value of the MA13 is approx 1380, up from a low of approx 800. Hurst would add the distance from the low to 1380, to 1380 for a target; I have been using 580 + (50 to 100) based on the DPO13 to arrive at 2010-2060 for a target, ignoring any fudge factor.
Other methods can find higher objectives, but this one certainly is in line with your conviction that a top is at hand.
Oddlot
Since price has a lot of noise, I find it useful to use an estimate of price constructed using a CMA such as CMA13 and adding to that value the normal amplitude (appropriate side)to get a normalized price. The point where the CMA183 turns positive is marked, and the value of the MA13 is approx 1380, up from a low of approx 800. Hurst would add the distance from the low to 1380, to 1380 for a target; I have been using 580 + (50 to 100) based on the DPO13 to arrive at 2010-2060 for a target, ignoring any fudge factor.
Other methods can find higher objectives, but this one certainly is in line with your conviction that a top is at hand.
Oddlot
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