Short Term Trading Member Forum

[Oddlot]

John, I apologize for paraphrasing and not quoting your words exactly. My intent was for more people to know of your work.

Rab120: while I agree that quotes would have been better, my interpretation was created as follows.

SilentOne: So with new highs, one has to conclude that we saw an 18 month cycle low here in October, with the actual cycle period running almost 16 months. We are only 4 weeks up into this new cycle. How right translated can this 9 year cycle extend? I have no preconceived ideas of what these markets will do from here. Each time you expect cycles to turn somewhat bearish, CBs step in to goose the markets.

Perhaps the only thing to keep in mind for now is that a 9 year Hurst cycle low (actual cycle period is expected to run approx. 7 years) is due late 2015 into 2016. How we get there is hard to see. I wonder how active CBs will be with QE from here through 2015. - See more at: http://hurstcycles.com/the-next-18-month-hurst-cycle/#sthash.djiZMVeH.Z97BbZtq.dpuf

Oddlot: if the next 18month low is nominally 1Jan2016, the top is likely to be created by an interplay of shorter term components, which include 9/6/3 months. If the cycles are ideal, then the component highs would occur in Oct + 4.5/3.0/1.5 months, or Feb/Jan/Dec. Since the amplitudes increase as the cycle length increases, it is most likely that the highs of the 4.5 and 3.0 month cycles will create the "top" either end of January, or in April. Seasonal patterns would not argue with either time, as the Nov-Jan is historically the strongest, and Nov-Apr is normally a very good time.

So for me to say that he thinks the market "could" continue for another 2-3 months is consistent with the theory which he advocates, and the phasing which he has stated.

The comments re breaking of the October low would be the ultimate bailout signal, is mine.


SPX 1990 daily April 2010_csv_monthly_2014-11-05
- See more at: http://hurstcycles.com/the-next-18-month-hurst-cycle/#sthash.djiZMVeH.Z97BbZtq.dpuf