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Re: GOSAVI post# 33175

Thursday, 10/30/2014 1:14:13 PM

Thursday, October 30, 2014 1:14:13 PM

Post# of 38056
GOSAVI,

You stated:

Slow bleed sure to happen when no money exchanges hands and no financials reported


Even if Savi was a fully reporting (and fully current) company, any revenue from this contract would not be seen until the 10KSB, which would be due by next April. Even for a fully reporting company, what we would get right now is an 8-K, which we did get for this contract. So, at this time we have as much information about the revenues for this contract as we would have even with an improved reporting status.

I will say that I'm a bit surprised by the stock's behaviour since the contract news release. If the numbers we were given even come close to being true (and they were repeated on an 8-K filed with the SEC, which I give more weight to than a PR), then the stock should be extremely undervalued at this price. If we are expecting to receive over $700 million over 5 years (plus a $30 million licencing fee), that is approximately $150 million per year revenue, and we are currently sitting on a market cap of about $33 million. So, if these revenue estimates come any where close to being true, at the current stock price we are sitting at a P/S value of ~0.22. Even if the fully diluted shares are 8 or 10 billion (compared to the 6 billion outstanding), we would still be looking at a fully diluted P/S value of ~0.29-0.37. In my experience, a more typical P/S multiple is close to 2. Some may figure a larger multiple than 2 is appropriate (certainly not the 15-30 multiple you might find on earnings). However, I think most everyone would agree that the P/S multiple would be over one, not a fraction of one. Therefore, at a P/S multiple of ~0.22, we should be considered extremely undervalued IF the revenue figures in the contract news are anywhere close to real.

I understand that we could easily find ourselves in an undervalued position due to lack of buying interest due to such a limited number of people that are even aware of this company. However, anyone selling shares is not in the "not even aware of this company" category. Anyone selling must not agree that the current price is undervalued. Therefore, those selling would seem to be indicating that they think that the numbers in the contract news (and also in an 8-K filing) are false. I realize that the selling volume has not been all that high in the last few days, but there was a decent amount of selling volume on the day of the news.
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