Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[CallMeCrazy]

I don't disagree with your assessment of Sierra as a "sleazy blog," but I do not think CTIX is, as yet, an acquisition target because Leo knows the value of CTIX and the price he would demand is higher than any major pharmaceutical would be willing to pay at this time.

So I am referring to a partnership deal and I think GSK has some problems that differentiate them from other pharmas that are merely facing "patent cliffs."

1. Glaxo's U.S. pharmaceutical sales have fallen 16% since 2009.

2. Sales of new therapies, Breo Ellipta and Anoro Ellipta, intended to replace lost revenue have been disappointing.

3. Analysts predict earnings will tumble 17% this year.

4. Advair, the company’s best-selling asthma treatment, is slumping as it faces new competition.

5. Company paid a $3 billion fine in 2012 to resolve U.S. criminal and civil investigations that it failed to report clinical data for Avandia, and marketed other drugs for unapproved uses.

6. Reforms may mean the sales force no longer has the proper incentives to push Breo and Anoro.

7. Glaxo's head of North American pharmaceuticals under pressure to increase U.S. drug sales.

Several pharmas are facing the patent expiration problem in the near future, but Glaxo is in dire straits as we speak. If Glaxo does enter the bidding to partner with CTIX on B then the problems I have enumerated above can only serve to strengthen CTIX's bargaining position. Glaxo sorely needs a billion-dollar drug in the U.S. market. The nice thing is Glaxo needs CTIX more than CTIX needs Glaxo, no matter what they do or don't do.