Friday, October 24, 2014 9:43:24 PM
For ABSSSI, the calculation should go like this;
18 million patients a year for ABSSSI, 15% initial market penetration = 2.7 million treatments per year @ $2500 per course (current median for MSRA treatments) = $6.75 billion/year with year over year increases.
The rest calculations including "5 times" stock market valuation are correct. So the final valuation number for Brilacidin should be, 6.75+0.35+1.3=$8.4 billions.
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18 million patients a year for ABSSSI, 15% initial market penetration = 2.7 million treatments per year @ $2500 per course (current median for MSRA treatments) = $675 million/year with year over year increases.
B-OM has no effective treatment for 400K cases per year so 25% market penetration = 100K cases @ $3,500 per treatment = $350 million and increasing year over year.
B-Diabetic foot has 3.5 million cases a year so 15% market penetration is 520K per year @ 2500 per treatment = 1.3 billion with year over year increases.
Brilacidin for 3 indications all entering Phase 2/3 or 3 trials in the next 6 months has an initial market potential of $2.325 billion in annual sales. So, expected cap would be 5 times that. Oh, did I mention these are minimums?
Thanks, I just packed my nose with cotton to stop another nose bleed. And, those numbers weren't even crazy high yet.
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