lowtrade

[lowtrade]

Was working on a S&P chart update when I went out to WAWA. But when I got back yours is more interesting. So here we go.

Very first thing that popped into my head, when I saw the chart was "that's a long sustained climb". Start by checking why investor phycology likes this one so much. Right off to Finviz to check fundamentals. I like to check investment of big guys for ownership, margins for management performance and short interest for retail "enough is enough" mindset.

Institutional buying +8% GOOD, Margins; gross 36% profit -18% BAD management, Shorts 1.5% GOOD don't expect reversal. So big guys like this one, even though management sucks and retail doesn't see a reversal due to high price yet. Or those who count for a long position, feels true value is still higher. And those are the guys which created the " long sustained climb". The ones to rely on in this case. IMO

Next I evaluate the long chart, to match the long phycology seen in a 3 month climber. There is a $2.00 target on a rounded bottom long term chart. My guess you'll see $2.00 before stall of true value being reached.

BUT we evaluate long, then trade short. As traders, not investors.

3 month trading chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ROX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p87342424872

In this chart the real break started the 16th with right lip of rounded bottom cross. {See long chart below} So we have 5 days, with day 2 a profit taking day, for sentiment traders. Note volumes. Both large. (break & profit day) Then it continued (investor support) and volume started to climb with price as needed for continuation.

This tells me traders are being overcome by investors. There are only 3 days green, since the profit taking day. So could see 2 more up days. Maybe more, if another profit taking day pops in. But I'm feeling investors are driving this one and probably to the long term chart target. Sooner then later.

Feelings mean squat when trading. So if one sees 5 days green and/or a large candle spike, finishing top of day or not. That's the signal to watch for red day exit. It say exhaustion and could happen tomorrow, with the recent 2 large candles. Take what one can get on red and watch for continuation to $2.00 target, for a re-entry 2nd play.

At any rate that's how I'd trade this. There is no short term pattern to trade. So hard to plan a short term play. In a case where your in without a plan, watch for exhaustion to exit. 5 days and/or high candle spike are 2 signals to watch. Don't need both, either will do, to exit on any red day which follows.

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Also want to mention your using long term TA indicators. Fine for a 6 month chart. But when one gets into a 3 month swing trading chart, you should choose short term TA indicators, like I use to swing trade from.

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long term chart;



Basic, simple, and clean. Expect 2 more days, but exit when exhaustion is seen, no matter when !