Thursday, October 23, 2014 3:41:00 PM
As far as his "forward looking" remarks, I never put much faith into CEO's remarks/forecasts because they all have to put a positive spin on things, it's like a call to duty. Sales are driven by external forces, so they can't know where they will go, only where they are now and what's coming in and how fast. Whether the "rush" will keep up and/or for how long will it last, anyone's guess is as good as theirs.
It's external forces that make fast growth products sales charts plateau, and no one has been able to figure that one out. Where will the sales plateau begin, how long will it last? That's a complete mystery to everyone. All we do know is that after the plateau ends, it's either sharply up or down.
But yes, if you asked me, and I wanted to indulge in a conspiracy theory, It would be that the shorters have somehow blackmailed Avi into aiding their cause. While I think that's a bunch of hooey, hey, a nearly 2 billion dollar short position in a stock that refuses to fall fast enough, often rises and gives shorters sleepless nights, it isn't too far fetched to believe that some such an effort would be off the table, eh? But I doubt, sincerely, that he'd be allowed to trash the company even if he wanted to, there's too much at stake for some very big and very attentive institutional holders, not to mention insiders and such.
What I really think happened is, sales took off as the media made more people aware of the tech. Once the industrial people got their hands on a few machines, they went into an evaluation period. Others who follow the industry didn't buy, but rather are waiting to hear or see how the industry fares with these machines, whether they adopt it or sideline it. Computers too went through such a phase, with other companies watching the ones who had purchased them. Once they saw that computers were here to stay, they then jumped on board. Sometimes catch up is the game to play. Remember how MSFT would release a new windows version? People would wait to move up, because they knew there would be bugs that had to be shaken out. So they waited for that to happen before moving up. Same here, industrial users may be waiting to see if 3DP is here to stay, and thus adds value and profits, or is just not ready for prime time yet. A good question for something that's been around for almost 30 years and only captured notice in these last few years.
In short, I think we've evaluated the industry and consumer prospects very well, now it's time to sit and wait for things to shake themselves out.
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