Tuesday, October 21, 2014 1:20:55 PM
Kelly Criterion for those gambling types out there:
Say 20% : Merger happens with 30k% gains : 0.03
Say 80% : Nothing happens with total loss : zero, nada
The Expected Value = (% x PPS) + (% x PPS) : 0.0060
The Edge = EV - current : 0.0059
Odds = price gained if merger happens : 0.0299
Kelly Edge/Odds = 19.7%
The 1/2 Kelly = 9.9%
Anywhere from 10% to 20% of bankroll should be used now.
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