Looking for a low soon; we are in 10 week ball-park, ideally next week. Have a target of 189-187 for SPY. May not get it of course and may have hit it already. Also, may go as low as 184.
Good time after to go long for X-mas. If low is late, say end of October, and cycles starting to stretch out, could be an ugly 2015.
I have hypothesized publically that the last 4.5 year low was in late 2011, and previous to that, that our beloved Hurst leader, Airedale, was correct in identifying August 2007 as the 4.5 year low. There has been a lot of different phasing since then.
But we'll know soon enough.
~D