My "conclusion" or WAG or point of view that is determining my actions is that the chart looks like we (really SGLB, but I include myself with them because I have a fair amount of my money in SGLB shares) are at a level of support right where we are. We are at this level based upon the collective perception that this is a technology that is being embraced by some of the major players in the devceloping AM area. - just take a look at the great dot connecting chart Jackle made and is included in the opening page for this baord.
In order for SGLB to move north, I believe it will require the inking of contracts and the receipt of revenues. To move far north, it will require quarter over quarter increasing revenues and increasing numbers of contracts and increased acceptance within the AM community. The timing of this, IMO, is going to require at least a 6 to 9 month window, however we may see more dots duriing that time to support a stronger belief that the contracts and revenues will arrive. I see this time frame because GE is not about to sign a big contract for many PrintRite software/hardware packagegs without having the machines in place. That will take the completion of the buildings, the ordering of the machines and the delivery of said machines. Given that GE has stated that it will ramp up during 2015 and be in a full production mode by 2016, I think that a lead time of 6 to 9 months from now will be sufficient to see some of the contracts and delivery. I do not think it will be an all at once deal. Honeywell is likely to be a contributor to Sigmas top and bottom lines during this period. Wild cards are the many other AM players emerging, but I think they are less likely to have a strong impact within 6 to 9 months. Further out they are likely to be significant. A very unpredictable wild card is Asia through direct sales and/or Rockville Assett Management assisting in the business connections there. Again, the time frame for this is likely to be more than the 6 to 9 months. A bit further out, I believe that GE will get the parts built using PrintRite certified and this will validate PrintRite for other AM using OEMs. Announcement of standards through NIST, America Makes, etc - which I believe will include the technological approach embedded in PrintRIte will also be a vlaidation and support for a further northward move.
In order for SGLB to crater, I believe that it will take either news of a competitor offering a competing product which is signing contracts and receiving revenues OR some news of PrintRite not performing as expected or hoped for due to some internal problem. Announcement of a NIST, America Makes standard which does not include the PrintRite type technology would be a problem. Time frame for this is completely unpredictable, IMO.
Absent either of the above, I believe that SGLB will continue to channel along pretty much where it is, bumping up on PRs and giving back gains as people become frustrated and antsy waiting for the contracts and revenues.
It is all about the business fundamentals. If it was a sure thing, then I think the pps would be well above where it is now. Built into the price is the uncertainty, which will remain until there is evidence to clarify the most likely outcome for PrintRite. That is when the investor community is more likely to start paying attention.
Because I believe that the dots point to a success for PrintRite, that there will be sufficient revenues to drive the pps north to qualify for a major board and subsequently interest by institutional investors, I think the longer term outcome is going to be incredibly rewarding for those who are willing to jump in now and let it ride. I believe that there will be an ongoing opportunity to acquire more shares at these levels during the near future and other shares at a slightly higher level but well below the full potential for at least a year to a year and a half.
I believe that the current time and price are an opportunity to acquire shares at what will be viewed as a bargain price some time in the future. A year out, it will still be a bargain compared to my expectation for two to fffffour yars out. When I first bought some shares I had a three to five year expectation. We are a year or so into that and I see nothing to discourage me. In fact, this morning I added some more shares, as I have done many times over the past year and anticipate that I will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
Apologies if this has been a bit long and wordy, but you asked why!
Agree with me or disagree with me, OK. Come to the same conclusion, for these reasons or different reasons, that is OK too. Disagree with me because you see these things differently or because you see other factors at work, that's OK too. This is just my rambling thoughts about why I think what I think
GLTU and GLTA
