Thursday, September 25, 2014 6:08:54 PM
I think this currency move is insane. Inflation has been well with reason this year in Brasil, foreign investment was the highest in 8 months last month, etc. The brl trades as if Brasil is a 3rd world country, which is assinine. In fact, I have heard many analyst say Mexico is a better economic system now than Brasil which is an absolute joke! Dirty Mexico? Really??
All said, on US chart, the gol has giant support at $5.35 (bottom of short term channel). It has even bigger support at $5 (long term trend line). Unless brl breaks $2.50, I expect this level to hold. Furthermore, the gol has not been this short-term oversold in several years, and last time it tested trend line it rallied several dollars. The top of the channel is rising; timing wise, I would expect a new high within 60-90 days. Of course, it will be subject to brl, but I think it is going to stabilize here. Keep in mind cmdr K and cart boy have hedged for this! They are doing everything right from the smiles IPO, to manage the capacit, to the strateg, to the bond offering, etc.
Someday, Brasil will get back on track and the gol will be far higher than $7-8-9 in my opinion!
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