Amarantus Bioscience Holdings Inc (AMBS)

[joboggi]

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=Ambs

This chart tells the story, which some of us are telling. After the Lympro debacle, the company announced a doubling of the number of shares, a delay in the Eltoprazine trial, and the likelihood that the company will not uplist. uplisting is better than not, as long as there is no RS invovled. Many were predicting $2 pps on its own, and so on.

The only positive is that the company has MANF and that will be cashed in someday in a sizable fashion.

If you note the obvious, that nothing has gone right since August you are just telling the truth.

Now, what is in store, well, the base could be here or it could be lower, the base is definitely not higher, at least until there is more news that can raise the fundamentals of the company.

Keeping in mind that a company is worth what people will pay for it, similar companies have market caps in this ball park. Given the 154 million share give away about to be granted, the pps will go down.

That 154 million will use up the first billion in shares, more or less, leaving the second billion in shares to fund the company for the next couple of years.

They could get as little as $40 million out of those shares, but will more likely get 50% more than that, depending on the costs associated with issuing the shares, which seems extremely high to me. ( I seriously stay away from that part of the analysis of the company )

Bottom line, there is no upside in the medium term and so that almost always means the pps will go lower.

The market keeps reacting negatively to Gc's blogs, and positively to the prospect of data released at conferences. I would think that will continue, except that I cannot see how the market will think the upcoming release of the Lympro data will move the needle, unless it is unlike the data in the previous two studies, which would then need to be explained with a larger study.

As it is, the company has yet to do any science of any note on anything because of the tiny size of the studies. The size is reflected in the poor finances of the company.

The company can continue to put out poor science until 2016 or so, but it cannot put out real science for lack of funding. Now, the Eltoprazine trial of 200 is reasonable, as a IIb study, but then there are the TWO Phase III studies that will run concurrently. The company cannot fund those without help. I am pretty sure that they can fund the 200 person study on their own, BUT, if no outside party is interested in helping that is telling. Almost all studies worth anything get some outside funding at this stage.