Disappearing Dinner Helps Rousseff Win Low-Income Voters
7:27 am 9/19/2014
Brazil's economy is in recession, inflation is above the target range, consumer confidence is the lowest since 2009 -- and Dilma Rousseff is gaining support for re-election by telling voters things could get worse.
In a TV advertisement the president's campaign began airing Sept. 9, a voice gravely intones that opposition candidate Marina Silva's proposal for an independent central bank would give it power over their jobs and salaries. A family grimaces as their dinner vanishes from the table.
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That's just one of the Workers' Party salvos that have eroded a lead in the polls Silva enjoyed two weeks ago and turned the race into a dead heat. The ads remind tens of millions of voters who have been lifted from poverty by social welfare programs that they could still slip backward. If those from families earning 1,448 reais ($612) or less give Rousseff the same level of support as the equivalent group did in 2010, she should win the election, according to Mauro Paulino, managing director at polling agency Datafolha.
"This attempt to show Marina as a threat to achievements should prevail until the end of the campaign to keep voters faithful, keep them voting for Dilma," Paulino said by phone from Sao Paulo. "The Workers' Party ads have to convince that group the safer change is to maintain Dilma."
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Narrower Gap
Polls indicate the ads have helped Rousseff narrow the gap. A survey of 3,010 people released Sept. 16 by Ibope Inteligencia showed Rousseff trails Silva in a likely runoff by three percentage points, whereas Silva led by nine in a poll released Aug. 27. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, meaning the two are technically tied. Senator Aecio Neves is polling third with 19 percent in the first round.
Rousseff's support among those earning 1,448 reais or less rose to 47 percent from 40 percent in that period, while Silva's support fell to 37 percent from 39 percent. Rousseff had 56 percent support from that group in the final poll before the 2010 election. Sixteen percent remain either unsure, are voting blank, nullifying their vote or didn't respond to the poll.
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In a Datafolha poll published on the website of the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper today, Silva would win 46 percent of votes in a runoff, compared with Rousseff's 44 percent. The survey of 5,340 people conducted Sept. 17-18 has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points. Silva's lead was four points in the last Datafolha poll published Sept. 10, also within the margin of error.
Besides arguing that full independence for the monetary authority would "give bankers great decision-making power over your life and family," Rousseff's campaign has tried to raise doubts about Silva by saying she lacks experience, would cut back social programs, and that she might privatize state-controlled oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA. (PBR)
Stunned Children
Another ad says Silva would reduce the importance of producing oil from deep-sea fields, which could mean 1.3 trillion reais less in royalties earmarked for health and education. Stunned children around a library table watch a book's pages turn blank as the narrator says they're losing a unique opportunity for development. "Is that what you want for Brazil's future?" he asks.
Silva's poor, rural background is akin to that of Rousseff's predecessor and mentor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. After the criticism began, she invoked the declaration "hope conquered fear" he made after triumphing over attacks in 2002.
"Every day there is an ad telling a lie, saying I will do a truckload of terrible things to Brazilians," Silva said in a question-and-answer session on Facebook Sept. 17. "They know no limits."
Choked Up
In a television ad that started airing this week, Silva recounts in a choked-up voice how she and her family faced hunger when she was a child living in the Amazon forest. "All my mother had for eight children was one egg, a little flour and salt with some chopped up onion peel," she said, adding that it's a lie she would cut social welfare programs.
Silva's campaign declined to comment on both its strategy and Rousseff's.
The Ibovespa stock index dropped 6.2 percent last week, the most since May 2012, when polls showed Silva lost her lead in the second round. This week, with surveys indicating the race stabilizing, the Ibovespa has risen 2.5 percent.
Additional Gains
Rousseff has reached a point at which additional gains become more difficult, Joao Augusto de Castro Neves, an analyst with political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, said by phone from Washington.
Still, Eurasia sees Rousseff, whose larger coalition in Congress gives her six times more free minutes on television than Silva in the first-round campaign, as the slight favorite to win.
"There is still an argument to be made that people are better off today than they were 12 years ago," said Castro Neves. "There's a diffuse desire for change among voters, but not any kind of change."
The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization on Sept. 16 removed Brazil for the first time from its World Hunger Map of nations with prevalent undernourishment. Under Rousseff and Lula, 36 million Brazilians emerged from extreme poverty, according to her campaign. The middle class swelled to more than half the population, and people got credit to buy their first homes and cars. Average real monthly income jumped 34 percent in the last decade.
Outsourcing Jobs
The ads aren't personal attacks on Silva but rather criticisms of her program that would mean dismantling industry and outsourcing jobs, according to Rui Falcao, president of the Workers' Party.
"When people learn about her proposals, that's what should intimidate them -- we're not trying to stimulate fear of anyone," Falcao, who is coordinating Rousseff's campaign, told reporters in Sao Paulo on Sept. 13. "Every day we show what we're going to do and point out the risks of a program that would mean going backward."
Rousseff has denied assailing her rival. "I have no intention of attacking the candidate, everyone knows that's not my style," Rousseff said in her televised Independence Day message aired Sept. 7. "But I find myself obligated as president to alert the population that if her government program is put into practice, Marina could dismantle the Brazil that cost us so much to improve."
Desire Change
Seventy percent of Brazilians desire change, according to the Ibope poll. More than a million people took to the streets last year to protest corruption, transport prices, and poor health and education services.
Silva has tapped into such sentiment by criticizing Rousseff policies that have led to stagflation. Inflation (BZPIIPCY) in August was 6.51 percent, above the upper limit of the government's target range, and growth this year is estimated at 0.33 percent in the latest central bank survey of economists.
Brazil's consumer confidence as measured by the Getulio Vargas Foundation fell in August to its lowest level since April 2009, which shows people are concerned their standard of living will worsen, according to Armando Castelar, the institute's coordinator of applied economic research.
Rousseff's negative ads that target the poorest won't be enough to secure re-election, according to Rafael Cortez, a political analyst at consulting firm Tendencias.
"There's nothing for now that changes the trend that favors Marina, which is expressed in lower rejection rate for her compared to Dilma," Cortez said.
Global Crisis
Voters who say they would not vote for Rousseff under any circumstances made up 41 percent of the Ibope poll, compared with 25 percent for Silva.
Rousseff responds to criticism of Brazil's economic performance by saying that despite the lingering global economic crisis, her government has maintained unemployment at near-record lows. Even before Silva entered the race, Rousseff was playing to people's wish for renewal with her slogan "More Changes, Better Future." She says her government has prepared Brazil for a new cycle of growth.
Her campaign in the last week has won over Noelma Perino Pereira, 35, who has mopped the floors of Sao Paulo's Congonhas airport since moving from Bahia state to a slum nearby.
"I was more for Marina, but then I said it has to be Dilma," said Perino, who earns about 700 reais per month and is pregnant with her second child. "I think she's better, she did very good service for the poor. Marina up until now is just promises."
To contact the reporter on this story: David Biller in Rio de Janeiro at dbiller1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Andre Soliani at asoliani@bloomberg.net Harry Maurer, Randall Woods
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