Tuesday, September 16, 2014 5:18:35 PM
Rates going up will be in conjunction w or even lag inflation, because as you said, it's all about future expectations . When inflation starts though it could be rapid and severe. Why? Because lack of inflation metrics are in another historical prolonged period currently.
The rise of markets and Gold together ( normally , historically, somewhat divergent) over the past seven years can be attenuated to two words, quantitative easing. Meaning, the fed endeavoring into measures to artificially prop up the economy, and ease depression fears. Those efforts involved directly printing currency, requiring investment banks to buy securities, to direct T bill purchases. Again, unprecedented. This fed involvement on the markets was viewed positively ( in large part made crystal by David Tepper on Squak Box one AM) that caused retail and institutions to pile in and ride the wave, which built on itself. Either way, this seven year rally was started by the Govt IMO , and that is not organic. Not saying corp profits didn't continue fueling it, but when a house is built on sand....
That QE fueled Gold Rally because of the perception of over supply of dollars ( ie direct cheapening ( dilution) of US currency). The negative effects normally associated w those actions ( hyper inflation) did not surface, and have not, yet. Why? Tons of theories. But, all gaps fill, and all bills come due. No tin foil hat, just logic based on historical review.
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